San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks Prediction & Picks : Odds & Edges

The bet on Over 48.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is supported by several key statistics from both the home and away team's last five games. The home team has been scoring an average of 34.6 points, and the away team 29.2 points. This combined average of 63.8 is significantly higher than the Over/Under line of 48.5. Moreover, both teams have solid records, each with 5-0 in their last five games overall. This implies consistent high-scoring performances. Their last five head-to-head match-ups also indicate high-scoring games, with the home team leading 4-1. Despite the home team's slightly higher turnover rate in their last five games, they also have a higher explosive rate which tends to result in more points. The away team's lower turnover rate and slightly higher scoring in their last five away games also support the likelihood of a high-scoring game. In conclusion

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks : NA +1.5 Point Spread (-108)

Betting on San Francisco 49ers with a 1.5 spread in the 'spreads' market is statistically sound considering the team's recent performances. The 49ers have a fantastic home record in their last five games, going 5-0 overall and 4-1 against this specific opponent. This indicates they have the upper hand in this matchup. Furthermore, they have an impressive home_overall_l5_point_diff of 13.4, meaning they tend to outscore their opponents by a significant margin. Additionally, their home_overall_l5_epa_diff is 16.00, and their home_overall_l5_explosive_rate_for is 0.26, both suggesting they have been playing efficiently and explosively. Adding to this, the 49ers' home_overall_l5_total_yards_for (391.6) is significantly higher than the away team's away_overall_l5_total_yards_for (321.4), indicating a stronger

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks : NA +1.5 Point Spread (-112)

Betting on San Francisco 49ers with a 1.5 spread in this NFL game is substantiated by several statistical factors. Firstly, San Francisco's overall performance in the last five games is impressive, with a winning streak of 5-0. Similarly, their home record is strong at 4-1, while their record against the opponent is also favorable at 4-1. In terms of raw scoring, the 49ers have outperformed the away team, averaging 34.6 points per game against the opposition's 29.2. This is coupled with a home overall point differential of +13.4, indicating their offensive prowess. Moreover, the 49ers' Expected Points Added (EPA) stats are superior in both passing and rushing, indicating a more effective offensive strategy. Lastly, the home team's explosive rate of 0.2577 exceeds the away team's rate of 0.2222, suggesting that the 49ers

Brock Purdy (SF) Under 15.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Betting under 15.5 on Brock Purdy's rushing yards appears statistically sound given his recent performance trends. Purdy's overall hit rate for the past 3, 5, and 10 games indicates a consistent underperformance, with hit rates of 0/3, 0/5, and 1/10 respectively. Furthermore, his current hit streak for overall, home, and against Seattle is at 0, suggesting a lack of momentum. Although he has shown some success in rushing yards against Seattle in the past (3/5 overall and 1/2 at home), his recent performance data does not support this trend continuing. Additionally, the model edge of 0.05086 is in favor of the under, reinforcing the statistical rationale for this bet. Therefore, based on Purdy's recent performance and the model's edge, betting under 15.5 on Purdy's rushing yards could be a reasonable decision.

Brock Purdy (SF) Under 15.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

Statistical analysis of Brock Purdy's rushing yards indicates a strong rationale for betting "Under" on 15.5 rushing yards. The key data point driving this recommendation is Purdy's poor overall hit rate. Over his most recent games (last 20), he's only surpassed the 15.5-yard mark 25% of the time. This trend is even more pronounced when looking at his last 10 games, where he's only hit the mark 10% of the time. His home and away statistics also support this bet. In his last 20 home games, he's only surpassed 15.5 rushing yards 45% of the time. This drops to 30% when looking at his last 10 home games. However, he appears to do slightly better against the Seahawks, hitting 60% of the time overall and 50% of the time at home. Nevertheless, the overall trend of underperformance suggests a strong likelihood of him not reaching 15.