Today's Top AFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Sunday 09/07 (Ben King Highlights): Best Value Bets

Logan Morris is poised to shine in this matchup based on his recent form. With a strong average of 2.2 goals in his last five home games and facing an opponent against whom he averages 1 goal when playing at home, Morris is likely to surpass the 1.5 goal line. His impressive 64.3% goal accuracy and 5.4 score involvements per game further support this bet. Additionally, with an overall average of 3 goals in his last five games, Morris demonstrates consistent scoring ability. Considering his recent performance and the matchup dynamics, backing Logan Morris to score over 1.5 goals against Gold Coast Suns seems a favorable and statistically sound wager.

Joel Jeffrey (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 14.5 Disposals (-196)

Joel Jeffrey presents a strong case for exceeding 14.5 disposals against Brisbane. His recent form, averaging 19.2 disposals in away games, coupled with facing an opponent where he averages 20 disposals, indicates his capability. With a model prediction of 18.6 disposals and a solid edge of 13.4%, Jeffrey's consistency shines through. His current hit streak of 1 away game and an impressive hit rate of 7/9 in away games further support this bet. Expect Jeffrey to continue his trend of impactful performances, making the Over 14.5 disposals a favorable wager given his recent form and matchup dynamics.

John Noble (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 19.5 Disposals (-400)

John Noble is poised to excel in the upcoming away game against Brisbane Lions based on his recent form. With an impressive average of 24 disposals in his last five away games and a solid history of hitting over 19.5 disposals against both this opponent and overall, Noble's consistency and current hit streaks make him a strong contender to surpass the line. His ability to maintain high disposal efficiency, gather kicks, and cover significant ground in metres gained further support this bet. Given his model-predicted 26.7 disposals with a 12.4% edge, Noble's form and matchup dynamics suggest a high likelihood of him continuing his streak and delivering on the over in this player disposals market.

Karl Amon (Hawthorn) Over 19.5 Disposals (-323)

Karl Amon's recent form, especially in away games, supports betting on him to surpass 19.5 disposals against the Adelaide Crows. Averaging 26.2 disposals in his last five away matches, Amon has shown consistency in contested possessions, kicks, and metres gained. Additionally, with a high disposalefficiency of 73.2% and a solid trend of 5 consecutive games meeting or exceeding this line, Amon's reliability reinforces this bet. Facing the Crows, against whom he averages 22 disposals, further enhances his prospects. Amon's overall hit rate of 5/5 in his last five games cements his potential to continue this trend, making the Over 19.5 disposals a compelling wager.

Sam Berry (Adelaide Crows) Over 14.5 Disposals (-161)

Sam Berry's recent form, especially in his last 5 home games, is promising. With an average of 14.8 disposals per game at home and facing Hawthorn, against whom he averages 13.8 disposals, the model's prediction of 17.7 disposals suggests he will comfortably surpass the 14.5 line. Berry's consistent contested possessions (8.4) and effective disposals (57.1%) further support this bet. Despite a slight dip in his turnovers (3.4), his ability to cover ground (328 meters gained) and find the ball bode well for exceeding the line. Given his overall hit rate of 9/14 disposals and the home advantage, backing Berry to achieve over 14.5 disposals against Hawthorn seems a solid bet.