Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) Over 1.5 Goals (-270)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jack Gunston has been in red-hot form, averaging 3 goals in his last 5 away games with a solid 55.6% goal accuracy. Facing Geelong Cats, against whom he averages 1.5 goals in his last 5 matchups, Gunston's recent performance indicators are strong. With an average of 5.2 shots at goal and 3 marks inside 50, he is consistently involved in scoring opportunities. Additionally, his current hit streak of 4 away games and overall hit streak of 8 games demonstrate his scoring consistency. The model predicting him to score 2.6 goals, with a 19.5% edge, further supports the bet on Gunston to score over 1.5 goals in this match.
Gryan Miers (Geelong Cats) Over 19.5 Disposals (-114)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Gryan Miers is poised to surpass 19.5 disposals against Hawthorn at the MCG due to his recent form. With a strong L5 average of 25.2 disposals in home games and an efficient 77.4% disposal rate, Miers consistently impacts play. His historical numbers against Hawthorn, averaging 17.6 disposals, suggest he can exceed the model's 22.5 prediction. Additionally, Miers showcases versatility with 9.6 handballs and 15.6 kicks per game at home, backed by solid metres gained and intercept stats. Despite a recent hit rate dip, his overall 13/16 success rate and the model's 19.2% edge indicate a favorable opportunity to back Miers for a solid performance.
Gryan Miers (Geelong Cats) Over 19.5 Disposals (-114)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Gryan Miers is poised to shine in the upcoming Geelong Cats vs. Hawthorn Hawks match. With a model prediction of 22.5 disposals and a significant 19.2% edge, the Over 19.5 bet looks promising. Miers has been consistent, averaging 25.2 disposals in his last 5 home games, showcasing a strong handball game (9.6 avg) and effective disposals (77.4% efficiency). Against Hawthorn, he has maintained a solid average of 17 disposals at home. Miers' recent form, including a 4/5 hit rate in home games, and an overall hit rate of 13/16, further support his capability to exceed the 19.5 disposal line. This bet aligns well with Miers' recent performance and matchup dynamics.
Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane Lions) Under 27.5 Disposals (-110)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Hugh McCluggage is predicted to have 24.7 disposals, with a standard deviation of 5, giving a model edge of 19.0%. His L5 average disposals away and against Collingwood are 24.4 and 25.2, respectively, slightly below the line. With a solid contested possessions average of 11.6 and turnovers at 4.4, McCluggage may face pressure. Despite his recent form, including a 1-game hit streak away, McCluggage's overall disposals average of 27.4 is close to the line. Combining his trends and recent stats, the under 27.5 disposals bet on Hugh McCluggage against Collingwood is well-supported by his recent performance patterns and the model's prediction.
Oisin Mullin (Geelong Cats) Over 9.5 Disposals (-114)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Oisin Mullin has been consistently contributing in his last five home games, averaging 9.2 disposals with an L5 contested possession average of 4. His recent form against Hawthorn, averaging 15 disposals, showcases his capability to surpass the set line of 9.5. Mullin's L5 disposals average of 9.8 and a solid 79.8% disposal efficiency at home further support his potential to hit this over. With a model prediction of 12.4 disposals and an 18.9% edge, Mullin's trend of hitting 8 out of his last 11 games suggests a high probability of exceeding 9.5 disposals in this upcoming home game against Hawthorn at the MCG.
Jack Bowes (Geelong Cats) Under 15.5 Disposals (-116)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jack Bowes has been averaging 17.2 disposals in his last five home games but faces a tougher opponent in Hawthorn, against whom he averages 16.5 disposals. His recent form shows an average of 15.4 disposals overall, just under the line of 15.5. With a model prediction of 12.6 disposals and a standard deviation of 5, there's a strong statistical edge of 18.2% indicating a higher likelihood of Bowes falling below the line. Considering his recent hit rates and the opponent's strength, betting on Bowes to have under 15.5 disposals in this AFL matchup at the MCG seems like a favorable choice.
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