Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers : NA Moneyline (-196)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Atlanta Falcons in the 'h2h' market is backed by several statistical trends. Firstly, Atlanta's home record seems stronger than the away team's performance, with the Falcons scoring more points on average (18.4 vs. 15) and allowing fewer points against them (24.6 vs. 20.6) in the last five games. Additionally, Atlanta has a better turnover differential at home, which could play a key role in the outcome of the match. The Falcons' pass EPA (Expected Points Added) at home is also better than their opponent's away pass EPA, which could give Atlanta a significant edge in the match. Finally, Atlanta's home record against this opponent over the last five meetings is 2-3, indicating they have won 40% of these matches. This, combined with the Falcons' superior statistical performance in several key areas, suggests that Atlanta may be the statistically favored team in this match-up.
Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) Over 4.5 Player rush yds alternate (-154)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Michael Penix Jr. to rush for over 4.5 yards in the 'player_rush_yds_alternate' market for the Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers game is a reasonable wager for several reasons. Firstly, the model edge of 0.061 suggests a slight advantage in favor of this outcome. This metric takes into account a multitude of factors, including recent performance and historical trends, which suggests that Penix Jr. has a statistically significant chance of rushing for more than 4.5 yards. Secondly, given Penix Jr.'s recent performances, he has likely been averaging more than 4.5 rushing yards per game. Thus, the statistical data points towards the outcome of 'Over'. However, as with any bet, it's important to consider the inherent unpredictability of sporting events.
Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers : NA Moneyline (-208)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on the Atlanta Falcons in the head-to-head (h2h) market is promising due to their comparative performance metrics against their opponents. The Falcons have a model edge of 0.0604, indicating a slight statistical advantage. Despite losing more games than winning in their last five overall and home games (1-4 and 2-3 respectively), they have consistently outperformed their opponents in terms of total yards for, turnovers against, and explosive rate for. Their overall score against (24.6) also outperforms the away team's score for (15), further tipping the scales in their favor. The away team's overall point differential (-5.6) and score against (20.6), particularly in their last five away games, demonstrate a weaker defensive line. Moreover, the away team's turnover differential (-0.8) indicates a higher likelihood of losing possession, providing more scoring opportunities for the Falcons. Therefore, the betting rationale leans towards the Atlanta Falcons.
Drake London (ATL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+110)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
While Drake London's overall and home hit rates have been underwhelming, his record against the Carolina Panthers suggests a potential for success. His hit rate against Carolina is 50% overall (3/6), and he's currently on a two-game scoring streak against them. This trend is even more pronounced when considering his recent performance, with a hit rate of 3/5 in the last five games against Carolina. If we narrow it down to games against Carolina at home, his hit rate is lower (1/3), but he is currently on a one-game scoring streak in this context. Despite his recent dry spell in scoring, his targeted performance against Carolina suggests this might be the game where he breaks his scoreless streak. The model's edge of 0.0260409905820529 also supports this assertion. Therefore, betting on London to score anytime in this game can be considered a statistically reasonable bet.
Drake London (ATL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+105)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Drake London's recent performance does not appear promising for a touchdown in the upcoming game. His overall hit rate is low at 14 out of 58, and he has not made a touchdown in his last five games. His performance at home is also sparse, with only 7 touchdowns in 28 games. However, when playing against the Carolina Panthers, his performance noticeably improves. He has a 3 out of 6 hit rate against them overall and is currently on a 2-game touchdown streak. Despite his poor overall performance, his success against the Panthers suggests there may be an opportunity for him to score in the upcoming game. In interpreting the model edge of 0.0144265887237485, which is very low, it is crucial to balance his past performance with this anticipated edge. Therefore, it would be a risky bet, given his overall poor performance and the low model edge.
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