Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) Over 14.5 Player rush yds alternate (+252)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Michael Penix Jr. to exceed 14.5 rushing yards in the 'player_rush_yds_alternate' market seems to be a good move based on his recent performance and trends. Over the last five games, Penix Jr.'s rushing yards have consistently surpassed the 14.5 mark, demonstrating a positive trend that is likely to continue. Moreover, his hit rate in the same period is high, indicating that he has been successful in exceeding this threshold in recent games. Additionally, the model edge of 0.156007320302396 suggests that there is a 15.6% more likelihood of this outcome occurring than the odds imply, which indicates a potential value bet. It's important to consider the match-up too; if the Carolina Panthers' defense has been allowing a significant number of rushing yards, this would further boost the case for this bet.
Tyler Allgeier (ATL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+185)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Tyler Allgeier for "Yes" in the 'player_anytime_td' market requires careful consideration. Allgeier's recent performance has not been promising, as evidenced by an overall hit rate of 0/5 in his last five games and 0/10 in his last 10 games. His performance at home is also weak, with a hit rate of 0/5 in his last five home games and 1/10 in his last 10 home games. However, Allgeier's performance against the Carolina Panthers is more encouraging. He has a hit rate of 2/5 in his last five games against Carolina, and 3/6 in his last 10 games against them. His record at home against the Panthers is even better, with a hit rate of 2/3 both in his last three and last five games. This suggests that he tends to perform well against this particular opponent, especially when playing at home. Given these statistics,
Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) Over 6.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Michael Penix Jr. to go over 6.5 rushing yards in the game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers appears to be a reasonable wager when we consider his recent performance. He's been consistently surpassing this total in recent games. In addition, the Falcons have shown some vulnerability to rushing quarterbacks, which might provide Penix Jr. with additional opportunities to gain yards on the ground. The model edge of 0.102991242837641 suggests that there is a positive expected value on the bet, indicating that over the long run, betting on outcomes like this one could lead to profits. Therefore, based on his recent performance and the potential weakness in the Falcons' defense, it makes statistical sense to bet on Penix Jr. exceeding 6.5 rushing yards.
See All Our Picks
You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.
Get Bet Better Pro