John Noble (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 23.5 Disposals (-118)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
John Noble is poised to excel in the upcoming away game against Brisbane Lions based on his strong recent form. With a model predicting him to reach 26.5 disposals, significantly above the line of 23.5, and a model edge of 18.8%, Noble's L5 average of 24 disposals, coupled with his higher averages in kicks (16.8) and meters gained (496.8), indicates he's in a prime position to surpass the set line. His consistency in contested possessions and disposal efficiency further support this bet. Despite a recent hit rate of 8/12 away games and 8/11 overall, Noble's current form and matchup history suggest a strong likelihood of exceeding 23.5 disposals.
Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) Under 27.5 Disposals (-106)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Will Ashcroft is likely to fall under 27.5 disposals against Gold Coast Suns due to his recent performances. Despite a solid 26-disposal average in his last five home games, his turnover rate of 2.6 per game and recent overall disposal average of 28.4 suggest he might not reach the set line. Facing Gold Coast, he averages 27.5 disposals, hinting at a potential struggle to surpass this mark. With a model predicting 25 disposals and a 17.6% edge, the under bet seems prudent. Additionally, his current hit rate of 3/5 at home indicates inconsistency in meeting high disposal numbers, further supporting the under bet.
Ben King (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 1.5 Goals (-227)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Ben King is a solid bet to score over 1.5 goals against Brisbane Lions based on his recent performance. With an average of 2.8 goals in his last five away games and a high goal accuracy of 69.1%, King consistently finds the big sticks. His involvement in scoring plays, averaging 4.8 score involvements per game, indicates he is a key offensive threat. Additionally, his average of 4.2 shots at goal and 2.2 marks inside 50 highlight his ability to create scoring opportunities. Facing Brisbane, against whom he averages 2.3 goals in his last five matchups, King's form suggests he is likely to surpass the 1.5 goal line, making this bet a favorable choice.
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