Today's Top AFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Saturday 09/13 (John Noble Highlights): Stat Projections & Picks

John Noble is poised to shine in this matchup based on his recent form. With an average of 24 disposals in his last five away games and facing an opponent he typically performs well against, averaging 18.8 disposals in their previous encounters, Noble is set to surpass the 24.5 line. His consistent disposal efficiency of 84.1% and ability to cover ground with an average of 496.8 meters gained further support this bet. Despite not having a current hit streak, Noble's overall hit rate in the last three games is impressive, making the Over 24.5 disposals a solid choice for this away game at the Gabba.

Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) Under 27.5 Disposals (-106)

Will Ashcroft is likely to fall under 27.5 disposals against Gold Coast Suns due to his recent performances. Despite a solid 26-disposal average in his last five home games, his turnover rate of 2.6 per game and recent overall disposal average of 28.4 suggest he might not reach the set line. Facing Gold Coast, he averages 27.5 disposals, hinting at a potential struggle to surpass this mark. With a model predicting 25 disposals and a 17.6% edge, the under bet seems prudent. Additionally, his current hit rate of 3/5 at home indicates inconsistency in meeting high disposal numbers, further supporting the under bet.

Ben King (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 1.5 Goals (-227)

Ben King is a solid bet to score over 1.5 goals against Brisbane Lions based on his recent performance. With an average of 2.8 goals in his last five away games and a high goal accuracy of 69.1%, King consistently finds the big sticks. His involvement in scoring plays, averaging 4.8 score involvements per game, indicates he is a key offensive threat. Additionally, his average of 4.2 shots at goal and 2.2 marks inside 50 highlight his ability to create scoring opportunities. Facing Brisbane, against whom he averages 2.3 goals in his last five matchups, King's form suggests he is likely to surpass the 1.5 goal line, making this bet a favorable choice.

Connor Budarick (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (+103)

Connor Budarick, despite averaging 0.6 goals in his last five games, faces an opportunity to shine against the Brisbane Lions with an average of 0.3 goals against them. With an average of 1.2 shots at goal and 0.6 goals in away games, Budarick's consistency and involvement in scores (3 score involvements) make him a favorable pick to snag a goal anytime. His ability to hit the scoreboard combined with his shooting accuracy of 30.0% suggests he is likely to split the middle at least once in this matchup. The model's 0.8 goal prediction further supports the potential for Budarick to contribute to the Suns' scoring efforts, making this bet on him scoring anytime a statistically sound choice.

Bailey Humphrey (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 12.5 Disposals (-106)

Bailey Humphrey is poised to exceed 12.5 disposals against Brisbane due to his recent form. With an average of 15.4 disposals in his last five away games and facing an opponent where he averages 18.8 disposals, Humphrey's consistent ball-winning ability positions him well. His 14.3% edge over the line of 12.5, supported by his 69.4% disposal efficiency and strong metres gained average of 286.4, showcases his capacity to impact the game positively. Despite a lower uncontested possessions average, Humphrey's ability to win contested possessions and create turnovers bodes well for him to surpass the set line in this matchup.