Jalen Johnson (Atlanta Hawks) Under 17.5 Rebounds + Assists (+102)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Atlanta Hawks prepare to host the Memphis Grizzlies, all eyes should be on Jalen Johnson and his projected contribution. While Johnson has been solid recently, averaging around 10 rebounds and just under 9.2 assists over his last five games, the matchup raises some red flags. Historically, he's managed only 5.5 rebounds and 4 assists at home against the Grizzlies, which speaks volumes about his struggles against this particular defense.With an expected stat value of just 14.22, taking the under on 17.5 seems prudent. The Grizzlies have a knack for limiting opposing playmakers, and Johnson's recent home hit rate of 5 out of 8 further supports this line of thinking. As he faces a tough Memphis squad that prioritizes defensive intensity, it's hard to envision him hitting the over. Let's lean into the under and trust the numbers to tell the story.

Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs) Under 39.5 Points + Rebounds (-116)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

In the upcoming clash between the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat, targeting Victor Wembanyama for under 39.5 combined points and rebounds feels like a savvy move. While his talent is undeniable, recent trends suggest a dip in production on the road. Over the last five away games, he's averaged just 17.2 points and 10 rebounds, translating to a modest 27.2 total. Against the Heat, a formidable defensive unit, his average drops even further, posting just 19.5 points and 11.5 rebounds in their last encounters on the road. The numbers reveal a player who thrives at home but struggles to dominate away, with a hit rate of 10 out of 10 for going under this line in recent road games. Given Miami's defensive schemes and Wembanyama's current trajectory, expecting him to eclipse 39.5 seems overly optimistic. The under is the smart play here.

Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Memphis Grizzlies) Under 6.5 Rebounds (-110)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Memphis Grizzlies take on the Atlanta Hawks, all eyes will be on Olivier-Maxence Prosper, but betting under 6.5 rebounds might be the savvy play here. Prosper has struggled to make a significant impact on the boards lately, averaging just 3.8 rebounds over his last five games and only 4.2 when playing away. What's telling is his minimal production against the Hawks-he's averaged just 0.5 rebounds in their last encounters, and even less (1 rebound) when away.With an expected stat value of 4.67 and a solid under hit rate of 18 out of 20 away games, the data suggests Prosper will find it tough to eclipse that 6.5 mark. The odds are stacked against him, and with the Grizzlies playing on the road, it seems wise to expect a quieter night on the glass for him.

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