Best NBA Parlay Picks Today, Sunday 04/05 (7-Leg) : High Probability Plays

As the Spurs travel to Denver, all eyes will be on Victor Wembanyama, but betting on him to snag more than 16.5 rebounds is a risky play. This season, he has been a rebounding machine, averaging 15.8 boards in his last five outings. However, when you zoom in on his away performances, that number dips to 14.2, reflecting the challenges of playing in hostile territory. The Nuggets will be a tough matchup; in their previous five encounters, Wembanyama averaged just 14.7 rebounds on the road against them. With a staggering hit rate of 17 out of 18 for the under in similar situations, it seems the odds are stacked against him. Denver's strong rebounding presence could further limit his opportunities, making the under a compelling bet. Expect Wembanyama to have a solid game, but perhaps not enough to cross that 16.5 threshold.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 27.5 Rebounds + Assists (-345)

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the San Antonio Spurs at home, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic. While his talent is undeniable, recent trends suggest that he might fall short of the 27.5 combined rebounds and assists mark. Over his last five games, he's averaged a stellar 17 rebounds and 13.6 assists, but a closer look reveals he's been more of a facilitator at home, averaging just 12.4 assists and 14.6 rebounds. Against the Spurs specifically, Jokic's numbers dip even further, with averages of 8.8 assists and 12 rebounds. The Nuggets' home dominance shows in his hit rate, where he's exceeded this threshold in only 2 of his last 15 games at home. With the Spurs struggling defensively and Jokic likely to focus on scoring, it's a smart play to lean into the Under on his combined stats.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 12.5 Assists (-323)

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the San Antonio Spurs, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but a closer look at the stats suggests a compelling case for betting the under on his assists at 12.5. While Jokic has dazzled with an average of 13.6 assists over his last five games, the numbers tell a different story when he's at home against the Spurs. He's averaged just 8.8 assists in their last five matchups in Denver, which paints a picture of a player who may not have his usual playmaking opportunities against this specific opponent. With the Spurs focusing defensively on Jokic, limiting his passing lanes, it's no surprise his assist totals dip. Given his recent performance against them and the strong implication of this under hitting-boasting a hit rate of 3/3 in the last three games-it's a savvy play to expect him to fall short of that lofty assist mark.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 16.5 Rebounds (-500)

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the Spurs, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but betting on him to stay under 16.5 rebounds could be a savvy move. While Jokic has been a rebounding machine, averaging 17 boards in his last five games, his home performances tell a different story. At home, he's pulling in just 14.6 rebounds on average, and against the Spurs, that number dips to around 12.Moreover, the Nuggets have a tendency to dominate games, which could limit Jokic's need to crash the boards late. With an impressive 19 out of 20 hit rate for this under at home, it seems the odds favor a more subdued rebounding night for Jokic. Given the Spurs' defensive schemes and his recent home performance, betting on the under feels like a well-calculated risk worth taking.

Austin Reaves (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 36.5 Points + Assists (-112)

As the Lakers venture into Dallas, all eyes will be on Austin Reaves, but the numbers hint that he might struggle to hit the mark. Averaging 20.8 points and 5.4 assists in his last five games, he's been solid but hardly explosive. In away games, his scoring dips slightly to 21.6 points, and his assists drop to 4.6-showing that the road environment can stifle his production. Against the Mavericks, Reaves has averaged just 13 points and 2.8 assists in their last matchup on the road. With a combined average of 25.65 against a line of 36.5, it's clear that this is a tall order. Given his recent trend of hitting the under in 13 straight away games, the smart play here leans heavily toward the under on Reaves' points and assists. The numbers tell a compelling story: tonight may not be his night.

Austin Reaves (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 41.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-114)

As the Lakers gear up to face the Mavericks, all eyes will be on Austin Reaves, but betting on him to surpass 41.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists might not be the best move. In his last five games, he's averaged around 20.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 5.4 assists-solid numbers, but when he hits the road, those figures dip slightly. In fact, his away averages are 21.6 points but sink to just 13 against this Mavericks squad.Historically, Reaves has struggled when facing Dallas, posting only 13 points in their last away matchup. With his recent away performance showing a concerning trend-just 2.8 assists per game-expecting him to log over 41.5 total contributions seems ambitious. Given his away hit rate of 13/13 on the under, this feels like a prime opportunity to capitalize on a market overestimation.