Best NBA Parlay Picks Today, Thursday 04/09 (7-Leg) Featuring Cooper Flagg!: Calculated Risk, High Reward

As the Denver Nuggets prepare to face the Memphis Grizzlies at home, all eyes will undoubtedly be on Nikola Jokic. However, when it comes to his rebounds and assists combined, the under 27.5 seems like the savvy play. Despite showcasing his usual brilliance with averages of 14.6 rebounds and 13 assists over the last five home games, Jokic's recent output against the Grizzlies reveals a potential dip-averaging just 14 rebounds and 10.4 assists in their past matchups. With a hit rate of 4 out of 5 games under this line recently, including a perfect streak at home, it appears that the defensive strategies Memphis employs could limit his numbers. Jokic may still have a fantastic game, but with the odds suggesting a 77.5% chance of staying under that mark, taking the under feels like a calculated play in this high-stakes matchup.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 12.5 Assists (-312)

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the Memphis Grizzlies, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but this might be a perfect opportunity to target the under on his assists prop at 12.5. While Jokic typically dazzles, his recent form suggests a regression at home, averaging just 13 assists in his last five games and 10.4 against Memphis specifically. With the Grizzlies' defense often tightening up, Jokic's playmaking opportunities might dwindle, especially as he focuses on scoring with a more aggressive approach. The expected stat value of 8.68 significantly underlines the likelihood of him falling short of that 12.5 mark. Given these trends and the implied probability of 75.8%, this bet makes compelling sense. So, while Jokic is a phenomenal talent, tonight may see him dish out fewer assists than usual in what promises to be a tightly contested matchup.

Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) Under 42.5 Points + Rebounds (-345)

As the Phoenix Suns host the Dallas Mavericks, all eyes will be on Cooper Flagg, but betting on him to stay under 42.5 points and rebounds feels like the smart play here. While Flagg has shown flashes of brilliance, averaging 30.4 points and 7.4 rebounds over his last five games, his performance tends to dip on the road. In fact, when he's away, those numbers drop to 23 points and 7.4 rebounds, which significantly alters the outlook for this matchup. Against the Mavericks, he's averaged just 21.5 points and 5.5 rebounds in recent contests. With his recent away games showcasing an alarming trend-he's hit this under in all his last 13 away games-the evidence is compelling. Given that he's been held to an average of 27 points against Dallas away, betting the under feels not only prudent but almost inevitable.

Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) Under 48.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-345)

When the Mavericks face the Suns, all eyes will be on Cooper Flagg, but betting the under on his combined points, rebounds, and assists at 48.5 seems wise. Sure, he's a rising star, but recent performances tell a different story. Averaging just 30.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists over his last five games, he's been more productive at home than away, where he's only converting 23 points per game. The Mavs' defense is no slouch either; they've kept Flagg to an average of 27 points in away games against them, and his assists drop significantly on the road. With a staggering 13-for-13 hit rate on the under in his last away outings, it's hard to see him breaking through that threshold against a tough Phoenix team. In this matchup, it's safe to ride the under on Flagg's total.

Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) Under 35.5 Points (-345)

As the Dallas Mavericks prepare to face off against the Phoenix Suns, all eyes will be on Cooper Flagg. However, taking the under on his points total at 35.5 might be the savvy play here. While Flagg has been a scoring machine with an average of 30.4 points over his last five games, he's been less prolific on the road, dropping to 23 points in away games. Against the Suns, he's averaged just 21.5 points overall, and though that number inches up to 27 in Phoenix, it's still well below our target. Plus, his recent form shows he's hit the under in 18 of his last 20 games, and remarkably, he's hit the under in all 20 of his last away contests. With an expected stat value closer to 24 points, this matchup could see Flagg fall short of that lofty total.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Over 21.5 Points (-208)

When the Denver Nuggets host the Memphis Grizzlies, all eyes should be on Nikola Jokic to light up the scoreboard. With an average of 31.2 points in his last five home games, Jokic has been unstoppable on his home court. He's not just hitting the over; he's been a scoring machine, averaging nearly 30 points overall in that span. The Grizzlies have struggled to contain him, with Jokic putting up 25 points against them at home recently. His last 10 games show that he's hit the over on this prop 9 out of 10 times, and let's not overlook that he's a force to be reckoned with in crucial matchups, especially at home. With an expected stat value of nearly 29 points, betting on Jokic to surpass 21.5 feels like a solid play. Trust the Joker to shine bright when the lights are on in Denver.