Deni Avdija (Portland Trail Blazers) Under 40.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-111)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As Deni Avdija heads into a matchup against the Denver Nuggets, the under 40.5 on his combined points, rebounds, and assists feels like a savvy play. While he's been solid lately, averaging 22.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 6.6 assists over his last five, context is key. On the road, those numbers dip to 25.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 7.4 assists, but the Nuggets are a different beast, limiting opponents' production. Historically, when facing Denver away, Avdija has averaged just 13.4 points and 5.4 rebounds with 5.8 assists. Plus, he's hit the under in 9 of his last 12 road games, showcasing a clear trend. Given that his expected stat value sits at just 33.6, I see a compelling case for the under here as he likely struggles to find his rhythm against a tough Nuggets

Deni Avdija (Portland Trail Blazers) Under 25.5 Points (-108)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Trail Blazers prepare to face the Nuggets, all eyes are on Deni Avdija's scoring potential. While he's been a solid contributor lately, averaging 25.2 points on the road, context is key. In fact, his average against the Nuggets specifically drops to just 13.4 points when playing away. This matchup presents a tough defensive challenge, as Denver has a knack for stifling opponents, especially against wings. Let's not overlook his recent performance either-though he's hit over 25.5 points in 10 of his last 12 away games, his overall hit rate in the last 19 games is a remarkable 16 out of 19. However, the trends suggest a regression is likely here. With an expected stat value of only 21.56, betting the under on Avdija feels like a smart move. The odds are in our favor, particularly given the Nuggets' defensive prowess.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 10.5 Assists (-101)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the Portland Trail Blazers, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but betting on his assist total to dip below 10.5 might just be the savvy play here. While Jokic has dazzled with an average of 12.8 assists in his last five games, a closer look reveals that against Portland, he's averaged just 9.6 assists, and even slightly lower at home with 10.2. The Blazers have a knack for tightening up defensively, especially around the paint, where Jokic thrives. With the Nuggets' offense likely focusing more on scoring, it's conceivable that his passing numbers could take a hit. Given these dynamics and the expected stat value of 9.44, betting the under feels not only reasonable but potentially rewarding in this matchup.

See All Our Picks

You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.

Get Bet Better Pro