Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Picks (Jye Amiss Key Factor): Stat-Based Insights

Jye Amiss is a strong bet to snag a goal in the Fremantle vs. Hawthorn matchup. With a model predicting 1.1 goals, Amiss's recent form supports this. Averaging 0.6 goals in his last 5 home games and facing a team where he averages 3 goals, the over 0.5 line seems conservative. His 26.7% goal accuracy at home, combined with 1.4 inside 50s and 1 mark inside 50 per game, indicates he's well-positioned to make an impact. Given his consistent score involvements (4.4) and 2 shots at goal per game, Amiss is primed to split the middle in this game at Optus Stadium.

Murphy Reid (Fremantle) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-208)

Murphy Reid's recent form, especially in home games, supports betting on him to score anytime. With an average of 1.6 goals per game in his last five home matches, his goal-scoring ability is evident. Additionally, his high goal accuracy of 62.7% at home and involvement in scoring opportunities (4.6 score involvements per game) make him a reliable choice. Given his consistent performance and the model predicting him to score at least 1 goal with a significant edge of 7.6%, the bet on Murphy Reid to score over 0.5 goals against Hawthorn at Optus Stadium seems well-founded.

Caleb Serong (Fremantle) Over 24.5 Disposals (-278)

Caleb Serong is poised to shine in this matchup based on his recent form. With a strong average of 27.8 disposals in his last five home games and a consistent performance against Hawthorn with an average of 28.5 disposals in their last five encounters, Serong is likely to surpass the set line of 24.5 disposals. His ability to gather possessions efficiently (71.9% disposal efficiency) and cover ground (462.4 meters gained average) gives him an edge. Despite a slight increase in turnovers lately, his overall performance and matchup history support a favorable outcome. Considering his past success and the model's prediction of 28.5 disposals with a standard deviation of 5, the bet on Serong to go over 24.5 disposals seems well-founded.

Luke Jackson (Fremantle) Over 14.5 Disposals (-227)

Luke Jackson presents a solid opportunity to surpass 14.5 disposals against Hawthorn based on his recent form. With a model-predicted 17.9 disposals and a 5.3% edge, his L5 average of 18.4 disposals, especially against this opponent, supports this bet. Additionally, his strong metrics in contested possessions (11.6) and kicks (7.4) at home indicate his involvement in the game. With a consistent overall hit rate of 7/8 and a favorable matchup at Optus Stadium, where he averages 24 disposals against Hawthorn, Jackson's ability to control possession and generate meters gained (186.4) strengthens the rationale for this wager.

Jordan Clark (Fremantle) Over 19.5 Disposals (-588)

Jordan Clark is poised to shine in disposals against Hawthorn based on his stellar L5 stats. With a model prediction of 25.8, well above the line of 19.5, Clark's recent form showcases an average of 28.8 disposals in home games. His proficiency is evident with a high disposalefficiency of 75.6% and an impressive 19.2 kicks per game. Against Hawthorn, he maintains a solid average of 20 disposals. Clark's consistent performance, averaging 26.6 disposals overall, paired with his current hit rate of 7/8, suggests a high likelihood of exceeding 19.5 disposals. Betting on Clark to go over this line seems a prudent choice given his recent track record and matchup strengths.