Jack Henry (Geelong Cats) Over 9.5 Disposals (-169)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jack Henry is poised to surpass 9.5 disposals against the Brisbane Lions at the MCG based on his recent performance trends. With a model prediction of 12.5 disposals and a solid 9.9% edge, Henry's consistency in contested possessions (L5 avg: 4.6) and kicks (L5 avg: 7.6) bodes well. His L5 average of 9.8 disposals at home, coupled with facing the Lions where he averages 10.8 disposals, indicates a favorable matchup. Despite a current hit streak of 0, his strong home hit rate of 16/19 adds confidence. Expect Henry to contribute significantly in a familiar home setting, making the Over a favorable bet for this AFL matchup.
Oliver Dempsey (Geelong Cats) Over 14.5 Disposals (-154)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Oliver Dempsey is poised to exceed 14.5 disposals against Brisbane Lions at MCG. With a model-predicted 17.1 disposals and a substantial 9.2% edge, Dempsey's recent form bolsters this bet. Averaging 18 disposals in his last five home games and 16.7 against Brisbane, he consistently shows prowess in contested possessions, kicks, and metres gained. His 68.6% disposalefficiency and ability to intercept further solidify his potential to surpass the line. Despite a current hit streak of 0, Dempsey boasts a strong hit rate of 14/20 in home games, indicating his reliability in meeting or exceeding this mark. Bet on Dempsey to shine in disposals at home.
Jack Martin (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-156)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jack Martin is a strong bet to snag a goal in the Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions game. With an impressive 1.8 goals average in his last five home games, he consistently hits the scoreboard. His 73.3% goal accuracy and 2.6 shots at goal per game further support his scoring potential. Additionally, facing Brisbane, where he has averaged 0.5 goals against them at home, enhances his chances. Martin's 5.2 score involvements and 2.6 marks inside 50 show his active role in creating and finishing scoring opportunities. Given his recent form and matchup history, the model's prediction of 0.9 goals with an 8.4% edge makes Martin a reliable choice to hit the back of the net anytime.
Kai Lohmann (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-357)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Kai Lohmann presents a strong opportunity to snag a goal in the Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions matchup. With an impressive average of 1.4 goals in his last 5 away games and a solid goal accuracy of 55.0%, Lohmann has been consistently impactful. His involvement in the Lions' scoring plays is evident, averaging 4.6 score involvements per game. Additionally, facing Geelong, against whom he has averaged 1.7 goals in their recent encounters, further strengthens his goal-scoring potential. With a model predicting him to score 1.4 goals, significantly above the line of 0.5, and exhibiting an 8.2% edge, betting on Lohmann to score anytime is a statistically sound choice.
Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-294)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Charlie Cameron is a solid bet to score anytime against Geelong Cats based on his recent performance. With an average of 1 goal in his last 5 away games and a goal accuracy of 40%, he has been consistent in finding the big sticks. His involvement in the Lions' scoring plays, averaging 4.2 score involvements and 2.4 shots at goal per game, indicates his active role in their forward line. Facing Geelong, against whom he averages 1.2 goals in his last 5 matchups, Cameron's ability to create scoring opportunities, coupled with his recent goal-scoring form, makes him a favorable bet to snag a goal in this game.
Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions : Brisbane Lions 12.5 (-112)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The bet on Brisbane Lions +12.5 is backed by their recent performance metrics. Despite Geelong Cats' strong home form with high points and margins, Brisbane Lions have shown consistency in scoring and limiting points against, especially on the road. The Lions' ability to generate points and their solid defensive record make them competitive against the Cats. With Geelong's recent average margin at 38 compared to Brisbane's 22.2, the Lions are likely to keep this game tight. Brisbane's proficiency in creating scoring opportunities, even with fewer shots on goal, indicates their capability to cover the spread in a potentially close contest at the MCG.
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