Brad Close (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-109)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Brad Close is poised to snag a goal against Brisbane Lions based on his recent form. With an average of 0.8 goals in his last five home games and facing a team against which he averages 0.4 goals at home, Close has shown consistency. His 28.3% goal accuracy and 3 shots at goal per game further support his scoring potential. Additionally, his average of 1.6 marks inside 50 and 8.6 score involvements per game highlight his attacking impact. Considering his recent performance and the model's prediction of 0.9 goals, Close's goal-scoring ability is well-founded. Betting on him to score anytime offers value with a 19.6% edge, making him a solid pick for this market.
Shannon Neale (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-357)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Shannon Neale is a strong bet to score anytime in the Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions game due to his recent form. With an average of 1.6 goals in his last five home games and a high goal accuracy of 60.0%, Neale consistently finds the big sticks. His involvement in the Cats' scoring plays is evident with a solid score involvements average of 4.4. Additionally, his ability to take marks inside 50, averaging 2.2, and his frequent shots at goal, averaging 2.6, showcase his attacking threat. Facing the Lions at home, where he has been even more prolific with a 0.7 average against this opponent, Neale is poised to snag a goal, making the Over 0.5 goal scorer bet enticing.
Levi Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) Over 14.5 Disposals (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Levi Ashcroft's recent form, averaging 16.6 disposals in away games and facing an opponent where he averages 18 disposals, supports taking the Over 14.5 disposal line. His consistent contested possessions (5.6) and efficient disposal rate (65.0%) enhance his chances of meeting or exceeding the model's 17.2 prediction. With a positive model edge of 17.9% and a strong trend of hitting over 14.5 disposals in 11 out of his last 14 away games, Ashcroft is poised to contribute significantly in the midfield battle against Geelong Cats. This bet capitalizes on his reliability and the favorable matchup dynamics.
Levi Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) Over 14.5 Disposals (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Levi Ashcroft is positioned for success in surpassing 14.5 disposals against Geelong, given his robust recent form. With an average of 16.6 disposals in his last five away games and facing an opponent he typically records 18 disposals against, Ashcroft's consistent performance bodes well. His solid contested possessions (5.6) and disposal efficiency (65.0%) further support his ability to meet this mark. Despite a slight increase in turnovers (4.4), his impressive metres gained (231.8) and intercepts (0.8) showcase his impact on the game. With an overall hit rate of 16/20 and a favorable model prediction of 17.2, backing Ashcroft to exceed 14.5 disposals presents a compelling opportunity.
Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 23.5 Disposals (-122)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Max Holmes is poised to shine in this matchup based on his recent form. With a solid average of 28.8 disposals in his last five home games and facing an opponent he's historically outperformed with a 23.8 average, Holmes is set to surpass the bookmaker's line of 23.5 disposals. His impressive 17.5% model edge further solidifies this bet. Holmes' consistent hit rates, including a 5/6 record in recent home games and 6/8 overall, demonstrate his reliability in meeting or exceeding this line. Additionally, playing at home boosts his performance, making the Over 23.5 disposals bet on Max Holmes a strong choice for this AFL clash.
Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane Lions) Over 19.5 Disposals (-256)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Hugh McCluggage is a strong bet to surpass 19.5 disposals against Geelong Cats. With a model-predicted 25.7 disposals and a 17.4% edge, his recent form supports this. In his last five away games, McCluggage has averaged 28.2 disposals, exceeding the line comfortably. Additionally, his high disposalefficiency of 67.2% and consistent performance in contestedpossessions, handballs, kicks, and metres gained further reinforce his ability to hit this mark. Facing Geelong, he averages 20.4 disposals away and 23.8 overall, suggesting a favorable matchup for him to shine. McCluggage's impressive hit rates and streaks add confidence to this bet, making the Over an enticing option for this AFL showdown.
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