Jack Henry (Geelong Cats) Over 9.5 Disposals (-169)
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Jack Henry is poised to surpass 9.5 disposals against the Brisbane Lions at the MCG. His recent form, especially in home games, showcases an average of 9.8 disposals, exceeding the target. Additionally, facing the same opponent, he has consistently achieved an average of 12.4 disposals in his last five encounters. With a model predicting him to reach 12.5 disposals and a solid 88.0% disposal efficiency in recent home games, Henry's ability to control possessions and impact the game is evident. His overall disposals average of 10.4 further supports his capability to meet this mark. The data and trends suggest a high probability of Jack Henry exceeding 9.5 disposals, making this bet a favorable choice.
Oliver Dempsey (Geelong Cats) Over 14.5 Disposals (-152)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Oliver Dempsey is primed to exceed 14.5 disposals against the Brisbane Lions at the MCG. With a strong model prediction of 17.1, indicating a 9.5% edge, Dempsey's recent form supports this bet. In his last 5 home games, he has averaged 18 disposals, showcasing consistency and exceeding the set line. Facing the Lions, he has maintained an average of 16.7 disposals, further boosting his chances. Despite a minor downturn in overall form, his 66.5% disposal efficiency and 276.4 metres gained per game highlight his impact. With a solid track record of hitting 14/20 in home games, Dempsey is poised to contribute significantly in this matchup.
Kai Lohmann (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-370)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Kai Lohmann presents a solid opportunity to snag a goal in the upcoming Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions clash. His recent form, averaging 1.4 goals in his last 5 away games, aligns well with his 1.7 goal average against this opponent on the road. With a consistent 55.0% goal accuracy and 4.6 score involvements per game, Lohmann is well-positioned to exploit Geelong's defense. His 3 shots at goal on average further support his goal-scoring potential. Given the model's prediction of 1.4 goals for Lohmann and a 7.6% edge, betting on him to score anytime seems like a statistically sound choice for this matchup at the MCG.
Bailey Smith (Geelong Cats) Over 24.5 Disposals (-294)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Bailey Smith's recent form, especially in home games where he averages 28.4 disposals with a high disposal efficiency of 68.8%, indicates a strong likelihood of exceeding 24.5 disposals against Brisbane. His consistent performance, averaging 30.6 disposals overall, showcases his ability to maintain high possession rates. Additionally, facing Brisbane, he has recorded an average of 23.5 disposals in their last encounters, suggesting he is poised to surpass the set line. With a model prediction of 29 disposals and a positive edge of 7.2%, Smith's reliable ball-winning skills and recent hit streaks further support the bet on him to exceed 24.5 disposals in this upcoming home game at the MCG.
Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-303)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Charlie Cameron is a strong bet to score anytime against Geelong Cats due to his recent form. With an average of 1 goal in his last 5 away games and an impressive 40.0% goal accuracy, he consistently finds the big sticks. His involvement in the Lions' scoring plays is evident with 4.2 score involvements per game. Facing Geelong, where he has averaged 1.2 goals in his last 5 matchups, Cameron's scoring potential remains high. With an average of 2.4 shots at goal per game and a reliable goal-scoring record, backing Cameron to score over 0.5 goals offers good value based on his recent performance metrics and historical data against Geelong.
Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions : Brisbane Lions 11.5 (-110)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The bet on Brisbane Lions +11.5 is backed by their recent performance metrics. Despite Geelong Cats' strong home form, averaging a 45.2 margin in their last five home games, Brisbane Lions have shown resilience with a narrow 2.6 average margin in their away matches. The Lions' ability to keep games competitive, coupled with their higher points scored on average (84.2) compared to Geelong's points against (72.4), suggests they can stay within the +11.5 spread. Additionally, Brisbane's higher average shots on goal and inside 50s indicate they can create scoring opportunities to challenge Geelong's defense. This statistical analysis supports the bet on Brisbane Lions +11.5 in the spread market.
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