Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions : Geelong Cats -11.5 (-112)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Geelong Cats' dominant form at home, averaging 117.6 points scored and allowing only 72.4 points against in their last five home games, showcases their offensive prowess and defensive solidity. Brisbane Lions, with a modest average of 84.2 points scored and 81.6 points conceded in their recent away games, might struggle against Geelong's strong defense. Geelong's average of 45.2 margin in their last five home games compared to Brisbane's 2.6 margin in away games indicates a potential for Geelong to cover the -11.5 spread. With Geelong's superior inside 50s and shots at goal averages, they are likely to control the game and snag a comfortable win, making the -11.5 line a promising bet.
Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions : Brisbane Lions 11.5 (-110)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The bet on Brisbane Lions +11.5 is backed by their recent performance metrics. Despite Geelong Cats' strong home form, averaging a 45.2 margin in their last five home games, Brisbane Lions have shown resilience with a narrow 2.6 average margin in their away matches. The Lions' ability to keep games competitive, coupled with their higher points scored on average (84.2) compared to Geelong's points against (72.4), suggests they can stay within the +11.5 spread. Additionally, Brisbane's higher average shots on goal and inside 50s indicate they can create scoring opportunities to challenge Geelong's defense. This statistical analysis supports the bet on Brisbane Lions +11.5 in the spread market.
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