Brad Close (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Brad Close is a promising choice to snag a goal in the Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions game. With a recent average of 0.8 goals per home game and facing an opponent he nets 0.4 goals against on average, Close shows consistency. His 28.3% goal accuracy and 3 shots on goal per game in the last five home matches indicate he's a threat in front of the big sticks. Additionally, his 1.6 marks inside 50 and 8.6 score involvements per game suggest he's actively involved in creating scoring opportunities. With a model prediction of 0.9 goals and a solid 19.0% edge, Close presents a compelling case to back him to score anytime.
Shannon Neale (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-385)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Shannon Neale is a strong candidate to score anytime against Brisbane Lions based on his recent form. With an average of 1.6 goals in his last five home games and a 60.0% goal accuracy, Neale has been consistent in finding the big sticks. His ability to average 2.6 shots at goal and create opportunities with 1.4 inside 50s per game enhances his goal-scoring potential. Additionally, his average of 4.4 score involvements showcases his impact in the forward line. Against Brisbane, where he averages 0.7 goals in his last five matchups, Neale's recent form and historical performance suggest he is likely to snag a goal, making the "Over 0.5 Goals Anytime" bet on him a favorable choice for this AFL game.
Jack Martin (Geelong Cats) Over 11.5 Disposals (-112)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jack Martin's recent form, especially against the Brisbane Lions, suggests he's poised to surpass 11.5 disposals. With an average of 13.8 disposals in his last five home games and a higher average of 16.5 disposals specifically against Brisbane at home, Martin's consistency and matchup history support this bet. His strong contested possessions (3.8) and effective disposals (76.0%) also indicate his ability to impact the game positively. Considering his trend of hitting 4 out of the last 5 over this line and the model's prediction of 14.2 disposals with a 17.9% edge, backing Martin to exceed 11.5 disposals in this home game at the MCG seems a logical choice.
Levi Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) Over 14.5 Disposals (-115)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Levi Ashcroft is poised to shine in the Disposals market against Geelong Cats, exceeding 14.5 disposals. His recent form, averaging 16.6 disposals in away games and 18 disposals against this opponent, indicates his consistency. With a solid contested possessions average of 5.6 and efficient 65.0% disposal rate, Ashcroft is likely to impact the game. His reliable 10.6 kicks and 6 handballs per game, coupled with strong metres gained at 231.8, suggest he'll be in the thick of the action. The model's prediction of 17.2 disposals with a 17.1% edge and Ashcroft's historical hit rates further support the favorable outlook for this bet.
Levi Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) Over 14.5 Disposals (-115)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Levi Ashcroft is poised to shine with an average of 16.6 disposals in his last five away games, exceeding the set line of 14.5. His recent form against Geelong and overall season averages suggest he'll deliver, especially with a solid contested possession rate of 5.6. With a model predicting him to reach 17.2 disposals and a healthy edge of 17.1%, the odds favor him surpassing expectations. Although he's yet to establish a hit streak, his overall hit rate of 16/20 showcases his consistency. Expect Ashcroft to continue his impactful midfield role, making the over on his disposals a promising bet for this away game at the MCG.
Shaun Mannagh (Geelong Cats) Over 15.5 Disposals (-118)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Shaun Mannagh is poised to surpass 15.5 disposals against Brisbane Lions based on his recent form. With a strong average of 20 disposals in his last 5 home games and a consistent disposal efficiency of 63.0%, Mannagh's ability to find the ball and utilize it effectively is evident. Additionally, his 13.3 disposals average against this opponent further supports this bet. Mannagh's recent performances indicate a solid trend, with a hit rate of 12/17 in home games and 6/8 overall. Considering his model-predicted 18.3 disposals and the model's edge of 17.0%, Mannagh's proficiency in gaining possessions, both contested and uncontested, makes the Over 15.5 disposals a favorable wager for this matchup at the MCG.
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