As Matchday 18 unfolds, La Liga's top teams showcase their tactical prowess. Real Madrid leads with a 62.4% possession rate and a stellar 3.58 expected goals (xG), making them heavy favorites against Sevilla. Barcelona, boasting a league-high 64.3% possession, will look to outplay Atlético Madrid, who rely on defensive organization. Villarreal’s 320 progressive passes highlight their creative edge, while Mallorca’s shot accuracy of 37.6% gives them a scoring advantage over Getafe. Across the board, advanced metrics uncover actionable team props and highlight key mismatches to exploit for smarter betting decisions.
In-Depth Analysis
Getafe vs. Mallorca
Key Stats Table:
| Team |
Possession (%) |
Expected Goals (xG) |
Defensive Recoveries |
Shots on Target (%) |
| Getafe |
43.8 |
1.95 |
218 |
30.5 |
| Mallorca |
56.2 |
2.31 |
249 |
37.6 |
Analysis:
Mallorca’s superior possession (56.2%) and shot accuracy (37.6%) make them the likely aggressors. Getafe’s low possession (43.8%) suggests they will struggle to create sustained attacks against Mallorca’s disciplined midfield.
Moneyline Prediction: Mallorca Win
Actionable Team Props:
- Mallorca Over 1.5 Goals
- Getafe Under 1.5 Goals
Celta Vigo vs. Real Sociedad
Key Stats Table:
| Team |
Possession (%) |
Expected Goals (xG) |
Progressive Passes |
Defensive Recoveries |
| Celta Vigo |
50.4 |
2.03 |
238 |
244 |
| Real Sociedad |
49.6 |
2.87 |
310 |
278 |
Analysis:
Real Sociedad’s dominance in progressive passing (310) and higher xG (2.87) give them a decisive edge. Their balanced possession (49.6%) combined with superior defensive recoveries (278) can disrupt Celta Vigo’s midfield play.
Moneyline Prediction: Real Sociedad Win
Actionable Team Props:
- Sociedad Over 1.5 Goals
- Celta Vigo Under 2.5 Goals
Osasuna vs. Athletic Club
Key Stats Table:
| Team |
Possession (%) |
Expected Goals (xG) |
Tackles Won (%) |
Shots on Target (%) |
| Osasuna |
47.2 |
1.89 |
54.3 |
32.7 |
| Athletic Club |
52.8 |
2.46 |
57.5 |
38.4 |
Analysis:
Athletic Club’s strong defensive metrics (57.5% tackles won) and higher xG (2.46) make them favorites. Osasuna’s struggles in creating high-quality chances (1.89 xG) put them at a disadvantage.
Moneyline Prediction: Athletic Club Win
Actionable Team Props:
- Athletic Over 1.5 Goals
- Osasuna Under 1.5 Goals
Barcelona vs. Atlético Madrid
Key Stats Table:
| Team |
Possession (%) |
Expected Goals (xG) |
Defensive Recoveries |
Shots on Target (%) |
| Barcelona |
64.3 |
3.12 |
311 |
42.8 |
| Atlético Madrid |
35.7 |
2.05 |
278 |
36.2 |
Analysis:
Barcelona’s dominant possession (64.3%) and league-high xG (3.12) position them as heavy favorites. Atlético Madrid will rely on counterattacks, but their lower possession (35.7%) and weaker shot accuracy (36.2%) may not be enough to keep pace.
Moneyline Prediction: Barcelona Win
Actionable Team Props:
- Barcelona Over 2.5 Goals
- Atlético Under 2.5 Goals
Valencia vs. Alavés
Key Stats Table:
| Team |
Possession (%) |
Expected Goals (xG) |
Progressive Carries |
Defensive Recoveries |
| Valencia |
53.2 |
2.24 |
312 |
251 |
| Alavés |
46.8 |
1.76 |
276 |
230 |
Analysis:
Valencia’s control in progressive carries (312) and balanced possession (53.2%) give them the upper hand. Alavés’ inability to recover possession (230 defensive recoveries) will likely hinder their ability to break Valencia’s rhythm.
Moneyline Prediction: Valencia Win
Actionable Team Props:
- Valencia Over 1.5 Goals
- Alavés Under 2.5 Goals
Real Madrid vs. Sevilla
Key Stats Table:
| Team |
Possession (%) |
Expected Goals (xG) |
Defensive Recoveries |
Shots on Target (%) |
| Real Madrid |
62.4 |
3.58 |
324 |
44.2 |
| Sevilla |
37.6 |
1.98 |
276 |
34.7 |
Analysis:
Real Madrid’s league-best offensive metrics (3.58 xG, 44.2% shot accuracy) make them overwhelming favorites. Sevilla’s lack of possession (37.6%) and weaker defense (276 recoveries) leave them exposed to Madrid’s relentless attack.
Moneyline Prediction: Real Madrid Win
Actionable Team Props:
- Real Madrid Over 2.5 Goals
- Sevilla Under 1.5 Goals
Las Palmas vs. Espanyol
Key Stats Table:
| Team |
Possession (%) |
Expected Goals (xG) |
Tackles Won (%) |
Defensive Recoveries |
| Las Palmas |
49.1 |
1.92 |
53.4 |
246 |
| Espanyol |
50.9 |
2.15 |
55.6 |
268 |
Analysis:
Espanyol’s slight edge in xG (2.15) and tackles won (55.6%) gives them an advantage. Las Palmas’ balanced possession (49.1%) keeps them competitive, but their lower xG suggests limited offensive production.
Moneyline Prediction: Espanyol Win
Actionable Team Props:
- Espanyol Over 1.5 Goals
- Las Palmas Under 2.5 Goals
Leganés vs. Villarreal
Key Stats Table:
| Team |
Possession (%) |
Expected Goals (xG) |
Progressive Passes |
Defensive Recoveries |
| Leganés |
45.3 |
1.74 |
205 |
228 |
| Villarreal |
54.7 |
2.68 |
320 |
280 |
Analysis:
Villarreal’s creativity in attack (320 progressive passes) and higher xG (2.68) make them favorites to dominate Leganés.
Moneyline Prediction: Villarreal Win
Actionable Team Props:
- Villarreal Over 2.5 Goals
- Leganés Under 1.5 Goals
Real Betis vs. Rayo Vallecano
Key Stats Table:
| Team |
Possession (%) |
Expected Goals (xG) |
Defensive Recoveries |
Shots on Target (%) |
| Real Betis |
60.2 |
3.01 |
308 |
41.5 |
| Rayo Vallecano |
39.8 |
1.96 |
244 |
35.7 |
Analysis:
Betis’ superior possession (60.2%) and shot accuracy (41.5%) position them as clear favorites. Vallecano’s lack of defensive recoveries (244) will make it difficult to contain Betis’ attacking threat.
Moneyline Prediction: Real Betis Win
Actionable Team Props:
- Betis Over 2.5 Goals
- Vallecano Under 2.5 Goals
Girona vs. Valladolid
Key Stats Table:
| Team |
Possession (%) |
Expected Goals (xG) |
Shots on Target (%) |
Defensive Recoveries |
| Girona |
56.2 |
2.45 |
39.2 |
278 |
| Valladolid |
43.8 |
1.87 |
33.4 |
240 |
Analysis:
Girona’s ability to dominate possession (56.2%) and convert chances (39.2% shot accuracy) makes them the favorites. Valladolid, while solid defensively (240 recoveries), struggles to match Girona’s xG (1.87 vs. 2.45), limiting their ability to challenge consistently.
Moneyline Prediction: Girona Win
Actionable Team Props:
- Girona Over 1.5 Goals
- Valladolid Under 1.5 Goals