Today's AFL Best Bets: Picks, Predictions and Odds (Sunday 06/22 Round)

Collingwood Magpies vs West Coast Eagles : West Coast Eagles Win (+1050)

The bet on West Coast Eagles as the match winner against Collingwood Magpies is backed by their recent performance trends. Despite struggling in their last 5 away games, the Eagles show strength in contested possessions and inside 50s, indicating an ability to create scoring opportunities. Collingwood, on the other hand, has been conceding an average of 68.6 points in their last 5 home games, while West Coast has the potential to capitalize on this defensive vulnerability given their ability to generate shots at goal. With a model edge of 19.7% favoring the Eagles and Collingwood's weaker defensive record, West Coast's recent stats suggest they have the tools to snag a victory at Marvel Stadium.

Port Adelaide Power vs Carlton Blues : Port Adelaide Power -4.5 (-111)

Port Adelaide Power is favored at -4.5 against Carlton Blues due to their recent form. Despite struggling in overall scoring, Port Adelaide has shown improvement in their last five games, narrowing their margin average. With a solid defensive record at home, holding opponents to 83.4 points on average, they are expected to limit Carlton's scoring opportunities. Carlton, while scoring well away, has a weaker defense on the road, conceding 73.4 points per game. Port Adelaide's ability to restrict opposition inside 50s and shots on goal gives them the edge to cover the spread against Carlton's relatively leaky defense.

Hawthorn Hawks vs North Melbourne Kangaroos : North Melbourne Kangaroos 33.5 (-111)

The bet on North Melbourne Kangaroos +33.5 is supported by their recent performance metrics. Despite a slight negative average margin in their last five games, the Kangaroos have shown consistency in scoring, averaging 76.6 points. In contrast, the Hawthorn Hawks have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 79.8 points in their last five games. With North Melbourne's ability to hit the scoreboard and Hawthorn's defensive vulnerabilities, the Kangaroos are poised to keep the game competitive enough to cover the spread, making them a favorable bet in this matchup.

Gold Coast Suns vs Melbourne Demons : Melbourne Demons Win (+205)

The bet on Melbourne Demons to win against Gold Coast Suns is backed by their superior recent performance indicators. Despite struggling in away games, Melbourne's average margin and points against have been more favorable than Gold Coast's home averages. Melbourne's stronger team clearances, contested possessions, and shots at goal suggest they can outmuscle Gold Coast. Additionally, Melbourne's ability to generate more inside 50s and interceptions further supports their scoring potential. With a more efficient target disposal rate and higher average goals scored, Melbourne's offensive prowess gives them an edge over Gold Coast, making them a solid bet for the match win.

Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs : Sydney Swans Win (+142)

The bet on Sydney Swans to win against Western Bulldogs is supported by their recent performance metrics. Sydney's solid defensive stats, with an average of only 79.6 points against in their last five games, align with the Bulldogs' slightly weaker offensive output of 103 points for. The Swans' ability to control the game through clearances (43.4 on average) and contested possessions (139 on average) could stifle the Bulldogs' attacking opportunities. Additionally, the Swans have shown consistency in generating inside 50s (50.8) and intercepting plays (61.8), which could disrupt the Bulldogs' game plan. These factors, combined with the Swans' home advantage at the SCG, make them a favorable pick for the win.

Fremantle Dockers vs St Kilda Saints : St Kilda Saints Win (+257)

The bet on St Kilda Saints as the match winner against Fremantle Dockers is supported by their recent performance metrics. Despite a lower margin average in away games, the Saints have been scoring consistently with an average of 76.8 points. Fremantle, on the other hand, has shown slight defensive vulnerabilities at home, conceding an average of 69.4 points. St Kilda's ability to control the clearances and contested possessions, coupled with their higher points for average, gives them an edge over the Dockers. Additionally, the Saints have displayed better shot accuracy on goal compared to Fremantle. These factors indicate that St Kilda has the potential to secure a victory in this matchup.