Today's Top AFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Sunday 07/06 (Patrick Voss Highlights): Best Value Bets

Patrick Voss is a strong bet to snag a goal in the upcoming clash. With a solid average of 1.8 goals over his last five away games and facing an opponent where he averages 0.5 goals against, Voss shows consistent scoring ability. His high score involvements (5.4) and shots at goal (4.2) further support his goal-scoring potential. Additionally, his 52.0% goal accuracy and the model's prediction of 1.7 goals indicate a favorable outlook. With an edge of 19.0% and an implied probability of 74.1%, Voss's recent form and matchup bode well for him to hit the scoreboard, making him a reliable choice for an anytime goal in this game.

Caleb Serong (Fremantle) Over 27.5 Disposals (-108)

Caleb Serong is poised to shine with a predicted 30 disposals, 17.5% above the line. His recent away form boasts a robust 28.2 disposals average, exceeding the line comfortably. Facing the Sydney Swans, he maintains a solid 28 disposals average in their matchups. With a current away hit streak and a strong historical hit rate, Serong's consistency in contested possessions, kicks, and metres gained make him a reliable bet to surpass the 27.5 disposals line. Combine this with his efficient ball use and intercepts, and Serong is primed to deliver in this away game at the SCG.

Christian Petracca (Melbourne) Under 26.5 Disposals (-108)

Christian Petracca is likely to stay under 26.5 disposals against Adelaide. Despite his season average above this line, his recent away games show inconsistency, with an average of 26 disposals. Facing Adelaide, Petracca historically falls below this mark, averaging 29.3 disposals in the last five matchups. His turnover rate of 4.2 per game and the Crows' ability to disrupt possession support this trend. The model's prediction of 24 disposals aligns with Petracca's current form, making the under a sensible bet with a 17.1% edge, reflecting a 51.8% implied probability of success.

Caleb Serong (Fremantle) Over 24.5 Disposals (-256)

Caleb Serong is poised to shine in the upcoming away game against the Sydney Swans. With a strong trend of averaging 28.2 disposals in his last five away matches and a consistent contested possessions average of 12.8, Serong's recent form positions him well to surpass the 24.5 disposal line. Additionally, his impressive disposal efficiency of 63.4% and a high average of 13.4 kicks per game further support his ability to meet or exceed the line. Facing the Swans, whom he has historically performed well against with an average of 28 disposals, Serong's current form and matchup history make him a solid bet for achieving over 24.5 disposals in this game.

Jordan Dawson (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-127)

Jordan Dawson is in prime scoring form with an average of 1.2 goals in his last five home games. His solid 43.0% goal accuracy and 6.6 score involvements per game indicate he's a key offensive threat for Adelaide. Facing Melbourne, against whom he averages 1 goal in his last five matchups, Dawson's consistent shot opportunities (3 shots at goal per game) and involvement in forward plays make him a reliable choice to snag a goal in this game. The model's high prediction of 0.9 goals, combined with a significant 14.0% edge, suggests a strong likelihood of Dawson hitting the back of the net, making the 'Over 0.5 Goals Anytime' bet on him appealing for this matchup at Adelaide Oval.

Sam Berry (Adelaide Crows) Under 18.5 Disposals (-115)

Sam Berry is likely to stay under 18.5 disposals against Melbourne. With a model prediction of 16.2 and a 14.0% edge, the data supports this bet. In his last five home games, Berry averaged 14.6 disposals, falling short of the line. His recent form against Melbourne also indicates an average of 12 disposals. Although he has a solid contested possessions average of 6.2, his overall disposals average of 19.4 is skewed by higher-scoring games. Given his consistency around the 14-16 disposal range and the opponent's impact, betting on Berry to be under 18.5 disposals seems like a statistically sound choice.