Today's Top AFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Sunday 09/14 (Patrick Dangerfield Highlights): Best Value Bets

Darcy Cameron is a solid pick to surpass 13.5 disposals against the Brisbane Lions at the MCG. With a model-predicted average of 16.6 disposals and a strong 19.7% edge, Cameron's recent form supports this bet. His average of 16.8 disposals in the last five home games, including a perfect 12/12 hit rate and a current 12-game hit streak, highlights his consistency. Additionally, his historical performance against the Lions, where he maintains an average of 14 disposals, further strengthens this selection. Cameron's ability to contribute both contested possessions (9.6 avg) and uncontested possessions (6.6 avg) indicates his versatility in gathering disposals, making him a favorable choice to exceed 13.5 disposals in this matchup.

Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane Lions) Under 27.5 Disposals (-108)

Hugh McCluggage's recent performance, averaging 24.4 disposals in away games and facing Collingwood's solid defense, supports betting on him to go under 27.5 disposals. His consistency in contested possessions (11.6) and disposals (24.4) away aligns with the model's prediction of 24.7, indicating a potential struggle to surpass the line. Despite a good disposal efficiency (67.6%), his turnover average (4.4) may hinder his volume. Additionally, McCluggage's trend of 13 hits in 17 away games and facing an opponent where he averages 25.2 disposals suggest a likelihood of staying below 27.5. The model's 19.5% edge underscores the value in this under bet.

Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) Over 1.5 Goals (-278)

Jack Gunston has been in exceptional form, averaging 3 goals over his last 5 away games and maintaining a 100% hit rate in his recent away matches. With a solid goal accuracy of 55.6% and an average of 5.2 shots at goal per game, Gunston consistently threatens the opposition's defense. His impressive record of 4.2 goals per game overall and a current hit streak of 8 demonstrate his scoring prowess. Facing Geelong Cats, against whom he averages 1.5 goals in their last 5 encounters, Gunston is well-positioned to continue his goal-scoring streak. The model's prediction of 2.6 goals with a 19.0% edge supports the expectation of Gunston surpassing 1.5 goals in this matchup.

Gryan Miers (Geelong Cats) Over 19.5 Disposals (-115)

Gryan Miers is poised to exceed 19.5 disposals against Hawthorn at the MCG due to his recent form. With a model prediction of 22.5, a strong standard deviation of 5, and an impressive 18.9% edge, Miers' L5 stats support this bet. He's been averaging 25.2 disposals in his last 5 home games, showcasing consistency with 20 uncontested possessions and 15.6 kicks per game. Moreover, his 77.4% disposal efficiency and ability to gain an average of 379.4 meters per game indicate his impact. Despite facing Hawthorn's average of 17.6 disposals against, Miers' recent performance and high hit rate of 13/16 overall make him a reliable choice to surpass the 19.5 disposal line.

Gryan Miers (Geelong Cats) Over 19.5 Disposals (-115)

Gryan Miers is poised to surpass 19.5 disposals against Hawthorn. Analyzing his recent form, Miers averages 25.2 disposals in his last five home games, well above the line. His strong performance is further supported by a high disposal efficiency of 77.4% and an average of 15.6 kicks per game. Facing Hawthorn, a team he typically records 17.6 disposals against, Miers is likely to maintain his consistency. With an impressive 77.8% overall disposal efficiency and an average of 23 disposals across all games, Miers is in a prime position to exceed the set line based on his recent form, making the 'Over' bet a solid choice.