Today's Top AFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Thursday 08/28 (Ben Ainsworth Highlights): Finding the Edge

Ethan Read is a solid choice to score anytime against Fremantle based on his recent form. With an average of 1 goal in his last 5 away games, his consistent goal-scoring ability is supported by a 41.3% goal accuracy. Additionally, averaging 2.4 shots at goal and 1.6 marks inside 50 in away matches, Read is actively involved in creating scoring opportunities. His recent 3.6 score involvements per game further highlight his impact. Given his goal-scoring trend and involvement in Gold Coast's forward plays, the model's prediction of 1.3 goals for him, with a comfortable edge of 18.3%, makes Ethan Read a strong candidate to snag a goal in the upcoming match.

Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats) Under 15.5 Disposals (-119)

Patrick Dangerfield is predicted by the model to have 12.5 disposals, with a 5 deviation. His recent performance suggests inconsistency in meeting the line. Despite averaging 14.6 disposals in his last five home games, he faced Brisbane before and only achieved 18.4 disposals. His overall L5 average of 16.6 disposals also falls below the line. While Dangerfield has shown potential, his turnover rate of 3.2 per game may hinder his ability to hit the line consistently. With an edge of 17.9% favoring the under, this bet on Dangerfield to go under 15.5 disposals against the Brisbane Lions at the MCG seems well-supported by statistical trends and recent matchups.

Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats) Over 1.5 Goals (-345)

Jeremy Cameron is in blistering form, averaging 4.6 goals in his last five home games, with a solid goal accuracy of 68.5%. With an average of 7.4 shots at goal and 4.6 marks inside 50, he's consistently involved in scoring opportunities. Facing Brisbane, where he averages 2 goals against them at home, Cameron's recent hit rates are impressive with a 5-game streak and a 5/6 overall hit rate. The model's 2.8 goal prediction, backed by a 17.2% edge, aligns with his recent performance, making the Over 1.5 goals bet enticing for this high-scoring forward at the MCG.

Jesse Hogan (GWS GIANTS) Over 1.5 Goals (-175)

Jesse Hogan is a solid bet to score over 1.5 goals against Hawthorn based on his recent form. With a strong average of 2.2 goals over the last five games, including 3.2 against Hawthorn, Hogan's scoring prowess is evident. His high score involvements (5.4) and marks inside 50 (3.4) further support his goal-scoring potential. Although his goal accuracy (42.9%) could be improved, his consistent shot opportunities (4.2 per game) increase his chances of snagging goals. Playing at home and facing an opponent he has historically performed well against, Hogan's goal-scoring trend, especially against Hawthorn, makes the Over 1.5 goals bet enticing.

Logan Morris (Brisbane Lions) Over 1.5 Goals (-159)

Logan Morris is in fine form, averaging 3.4 goals in his last five away games and maintaining a 56.4% goal accuracy. With an average of 5 shots at goal and 3.4 marks inside 50, he's consistently involved in scoring opportunities. Facing Geelong Cats, against whom he averages 3.5 goals in away games, Morris is primed to continue his scoring streak. His recent performance, including a hit rate of 4/5 away games and a current hit streak of 2, indicates a player in top form. The model's prediction of 2.1 goals for Morris, with a solid 15.6% edge, further supports the bet on Logan Morris to score over 1.5 goals in this matchup.