Latest AFL betting preview: Fremantle Dockers vs Essendon Bombers. Get predictions and top picks. We analyze the top 6 player props available. Keywords: AFL player props, best prop bets today, player statistics predictions.
Jade Gresham (Essendon) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jade Gresham is poised to snag a goal against Fremantle, supported by his recent form. With an average of 0.8 goals in his last five away games, Gresham's 26.7% goal accuracy and 1.8 shots per game enhance his scoring potential. His involvement in 3.2 scores per game and ability to take 1.4 marks inside 50 further solidify his impact. Facing an opponent where he averages 0 goals in the last five matchups, Gresham's consistent scoring threat aligns with the model's prediction of 1 goal, offering a 19.2% edge. These stats suggest a favorable opportunity for Gresham to contribute to the scoreboard, making him a compelling choice for an anytime goal scorer bet.
Nick Blakey (Sydney Swans) Under 20.5 Disposals (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Nick Blakey is likely to go under 20.5 disposals against Port Adelaide, supported by his recent stats. With an average of 22 disposals over his last five away games, he falls below the line. His turnovers average of 2.6 and contested possessions at 3.8 in away matches suggest he may struggle against Port Adelaide's pressure. Additionally, facing Port Adelaide, where he averages 16 disposals, further strengthens the under bet. Blakey's recent form, with only a 3/4 hit rate in his overall disposals, indicates inconsistency. These factors combined with the model's prediction of 17.6 and a 18.8% edge make the under 20.5 disposals for Blakey a favorable bet.
George Hewett (Carlton) Under 28.5 Disposals (-116)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
George Hewett is likely to go under 28.5 disposals against North Melbourne based on his recent performances. Despite averaging 28.2 disposals in his last five home games, his historical matchup with North Melbourne shows a lower average of 24.2 disposals. With a model prediction of 25.7 disposals and a solid 17.0% edge, Hewett's recent contested possessions (10.8) and kicks (11.2) indicate he may not reach the set line. His overall disposals average of 26.8 also supports this bet. Additionally, with a consistent hit rate and efficiency, Hewett is poised to fall short in this matchup at the MCG.
Archie Roberts (Essendon) Under 24.5 Disposals (-123)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Archie Roberts is poised to fall short of the 24.5 disposals line against Fremantle. His recent away performances averaging 21 disposals, coupled with a model prediction of 21.8, suggest a consistent output below the set line. Roberts' L5 stats reveal a lower average of 18 disposals against this opponent, further reinforcing the under bet. Despite a slight dip in disposals, his solid handball and kick numbers remain steady. With a 15.5% model edge and recent hit rates indicating consistency, Roberts' trend of staying under this line in away games should continue, making the under 24.5 disposals a favorable wager.
Cooper Sharman (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-400)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Cooper Sharman is poised to snag a goal against Collingwood based on his recent form. With an average of 0.4 goals in his last five away games, facing Collingwood where he averages even higher at 1 goal in the last five matchups, Sharman is likely to find the back of the net. His strong 60.0% goal accuracy overall adds to his goal-scoring potential. Additionally, his average of 2 shots at goal and 1.2 marks inside 50 in away games indicate his involvement in St Kilda's attacking plays. These stats, coupled with Collingwood's defensive vulnerabilities, make Sharman a promising prospect to hit the scoreboard, making the bet on him to score anytime a favorable choice.
Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions) Over 14.5 Disposals (-175)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Zac Bailey is poised to shine against the Geelong Cats, with his recent form indicating a strong likelihood of surpassing 14.5 disposals. His impressive average of 19.2 disposals in away games, combined with a consistent hit streak and high disposalefficiency of 74.7%, bodes well for exceeding this line. Moreover, Bailey's past performances against the Cats and his overall stats further support this bet. With his knack for generating metres gained and intercepts, Bailey is positioned to maintain his current form and contribute significantly in this matchup. Betting on Bailey to go over 14.5 disposals presents a compelling opportunity based on his reliable track record and the statistical advantages he brings to the game.
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