Today's Top AFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Wednesday 07/02 (Jeremy Cameron Highlights): Finding the Edge

Jeremy Cameron is predicted to fall short of 15.5 disposals based on his recent performance trends. Despite facing Richmond's defense, which he averages 17.7 disposals against over the last five matchups, his home stats show an average of 11.4 disposals. With a solid 76.5% disposal efficiency but lower contested possessions and intercepts, Cameron may struggle to reach the line. His recent turnover average of 2.4 could hinder his possession count. Considering his consistent hit rates and the model's 18.9% edge, backing Cameron to stay under 15.5 disposals seems a prudent bet for this AFL matchup at GMHBA Stadium.

Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 19.5 Disposals (-119)

Jayden Short is poised to surpass 19.5 disposals against Geelong based on his strong recent form. In his last 5 away games, Short has averaged 23.2 disposals, exceeding the model's prediction of 22.6 with a comfortable margin. His consistency is evident with a high disposalefficiency of 85.1% and impressive kicks average of 19.2. Against Geelong, Short maintains a solid average of 21.5 disposals in away games and 23 disposals overall. Despite a turnover average of 4, his ability to rack up possessions, intercept, and gain meters (428 average) showcases his impact. With a hit rate of 10/11 in away games and 13/16 overall, Short's proficiency indicates a strong likelihood of meeting the over in this matchup.

Jonty Faull (Richmond) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-154)

Jonty Faull is a strong bet to snag a goal in the Geelong vs. Richmond matchup. With a model predicting 1.1 goals, significantly higher than his L5 average of 0.6, Faull's recent form supports this bet. Despite a slightly lower goal accuracy of 23.3%, his frequent involvement in scoring opportunities is evident with 2.8 score involvements per game. Given his average of 2 shots at goal in away games, Faull's consistency in generating scoring chances further bolsters the likelihood of him hitting the scoreboard. Betting on Faull to score anytime aligns with his recent performance metrics and the model's favorable prediction.

Rory Laird (Adelaide Crows) Under 24.5 Disposals (-116)

Rory Laird's recent home performances show he averages 23.8 disposals, close to the model's prediction of 21.5. Facing Melbourne, who he averages 28 disposals against, could skew expectations. Laird's turnovers (3.6) and contested possessions (7) suggest he may not reach 24.5 disposals. His recent disposals trend overstates his true potential, making the under a favorable bet. Consistency in contested possessions (L5 at 7.8) and turnovers (L5 at 4.6) indicates a reliable indicator of potential underperformance. Considering his L5 hit rate of 3/5 at home and 6/11 overall, the bet on Laird to go under 24.5 disposals is backed by a strong statistical rationale.

Kamdyn McIntosh (Richmond) Under 16.5 Disposals (-118)

Kamdyn McIntosh, averaging 12.4 disposals in his last 5 away games, faces a tough Geelong Cats opponent where his average rises to 18.5 disposals. However, his L5 overall disposals sit at 9.8. With a model prediction of 13.6 and a 17.8% edge, his recent dip in form, especially in contested possessions (4.2), suggests he may struggle to reach 16.5 disposals. McIntosh's turnover average of 3.4 and Geelong's strong defensive intercepts could hinder his ball-winning opportunities. Despite a decent disposalefficiency (58.1%), the model favors an under bet due to his recent performance trends, making the under 16.5 disposals a compelling wager.

Harry Himmelberg (GWS GIANTS) Under 18.5 Disposals (-114)

Harry Himmelberg is positioned to fall under 18.5 disposals against the West Coast Eagles based on his recent away performances and matchups. With an average of 17.2 disposals in the last five away games and a lower average of 14.5 disposals specifically against the Eagles, his recent form suggests he may struggle to meet the line. Although boasting a decent contested possessions average of 4.6, his turnover rate of 3.4 per game and the Eagles' ability to limit his disposals further support the under bet. Himmelberg's overall disposals average of 16.4 and a current hit streak of 3 also hint at potential difficulty in surpassing the set line.