Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Tuesday 04/07 (Cooper Flagg Highlights): Finding the Edge

As Cooper Flagg takes the court for the Dallas Mavericks against the Clippers, there's a compelling case to target the under on his combined points and assists at 32.5. Flagg has been impressive lately, averaging 30.2 points and 3.6 assists over his last five games. However, when he hits the road, those numbers dip significantly-down to 23.4 points and 6 assists. Historically, against the Clippers, he's averaged just 23 points in their recent encounters. Even more telling, when playing away, his assists average drops to around 2 per game against them. With a solid hit rate of 10 of his last 12 games on the road falling under this line, it's clear that the home crowd can stifle his production. Given these trends, taking the under on Flagg seems like the savvy move for this matchup.

LeBron James (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 9.5 Assists (-135)

As the Lakers gear up to take on the Thunder at home, the spotlight shines on LeBron James, but not in the way many might expect. While King James is a master facilitator, recent trends suggest he might fall short of the 9.5 assists mark tonight. Over his last five games, he's averaging 8.6 assists, and at home, that number dips slightly to 7.6. Going up against Oklahoma City, his assist tally drops even further, with just 6.6 assists per game in their last five matchups at the Staples Center.Moreover, in his last 20 games, he's only cleared the 9.5 threshold four times, showcasing a hit rate of just 20%. With a model suggesting an expected value of around 7 assists, it seems the under 9.5 is not just a gamble, it's a well-informed strategy based on LeBron's current rhythm and the Thunder's defensive schemes.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 24.5 Rebounds + Assists (-130)

As the Denver Nuggets welcome the Portland Trail Blazers, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but a closer look suggests that betting the under on his combined rebounds and assists at 24.5 could be shrewd. While Jokic has dazzled with averages of 15.2 rebounds and 12.8 assists over his last five games, his production dips when facing the Blazers, with an average of just 20.53 combined against them recently.At home, he's been solid, but against Portland specifically, he's managed only 13.2 rebounds and 10.2 assists on average. With a hit rate of just 2 out of his last 3 games, there's a strong trend indicating he might not hit that lofty mark this time around. The Nuggets may lean more on their perimeter game, making the under a compelling option in this matchup.

Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) Under 33.5 Points + Rebounds (-110)

As Cooper Flagg hits the court in Dallas, the spotlight's on him, but the numbers suggest we should lean toward the Under on his combined points and rebounds, set at 33.5. Flagg has been solid, averaging 30.2 points and 6.2 rebounds over his last five games, but things change on the road. When away from home, his production dips to 23.4 points and 6.8 rebounds. Against the Mavericks, he's averaged just 23 points in their last five encounters, with a notable spike to 35 only when playing at home. But in this matchup, the data shows he's often stifled, averaging only 7.7 rebounds against Dallas. With an impressive hit rate of 15 for 19 overall and 11 for 12 on the road, targeting the Under feels like a savvy play as he navigates a challenging Dallas defense.

Deni Avdija (Portland Trail Blazers) Under 40.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-108)

As the Trail Blazers head to Denver, all eyes will be on Deni Avdija's performance. While he has flashed brilliance, recent matchups against the Nuggets hint that he might struggle to hit the over on 40.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists. In his last five games, he averaged a solid 22.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 6.6 assists, but when facing Denver, those numbers drop, particularly on the road. His average of 13.4 points and just 5.4 rebounds in away games against this opponent paints a telling picture. With a hit rate of just 9 out of 12 in away games, it seems he may find 40.5 a tough mountain to climb in the altitude of Denver. The data indicates he's likely to come in under, making this a compelling bet as the Blazers seek to break through the Nuggets' staunch defense.