Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Tuesday 04/07 (Will Riley Highlights): Data-Driven Insights

As the Washington Wizards prepare to host the Chicago Bulls, all eyes will be on Will Riley, but betting enthusiasts should consider the points total under 21.5. Riley has been a model of consistency lately, but not in the way you might expect. In his last 20 games, he has hit the under in an impressive 16 of them, and even more telling, he hasn't exceeded this mark at home during those outings-going a perfect 20 for 20. The Bulls' defense has tightened up, allowing opponents less than 105 points per game in recent matchups, which adds another layer of challenge for Riley. With an expected stat value of just 13.05 points, it seems the odds are stacked against him reaching that 21.5 threshold. Given the trends and defensive scrutiny he'll face, taking the under on Riley looks like a sharp play for this primetime showdown.

Luke Kennard (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 19.5 Points + Assists (-104)

As the Lakers gear up to host the Thunder, all eyes will be on Luke Kennard, but sports bettors might want to consider the under on his combined points and assists at 19.5. Over his last five games, Kennard has averaged just 9.6 points and 3.6 assists, which puts him well below our target. At home, those numbers dip even further, with averages of 6.4 points and only 1.6 assists. Historically, he's struggled against Oklahoma City, mustering a mere 7 points and 3 assists over their last few matchups. Given the Lakers' depth and the way they distribute the ball, Kennard's role in this high-octane offense has been more of a secondary contributor. With a remarkable 19 out of the last 20 games hitting the under at home, it feels like the odds are stacked in favor of this bet. Look for Kennard to fall short of that 19.

Will Riley (Washington Wizards) Under 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125)

As the Wizards gear up to face the Bulls, all eyes should be on Will Riley. With a combined points, rebounds, and assists line set at 30.5, there's a compelling case for taking the under. Over the last 20 games, Riley has consistently fallen short, hitting the under a remarkable 16 times. Even more telling is his home performance, where he's gone under in every single game during that stretch. The matchup against the Bulls presents its own challenges, as Chicago tends to tighten up defensively, making it difficult for opposing players to rack up big numbers. Given that Riley's expected stat value hovers around 18.79, it's clear he's not likely to eclipse that 30.5 mark. With an implied probability of 55.6% favoring the under, betting against the over feels like a savvy play in this scenario. Stick with the trends; Riley may just surprise us all by staying under once again.

Luke Kennard (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-114)

As the Lakers gear up to face the Thunder at home, all eyes should be on Luke Kennard's player prop. With the line set at 24.5 for points, rebounds, and assists combined, it feels a bit ambitious given his recent production. Over the last five games, Kennard has averaged just 9.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists-totals that fall significantly short of our target. When we zoom in on his home performances, those numbers dive even lower, with only 6.4 points, 1.8 rebounds, and 1.6 assists in L.A. Against Oklahoma City, Kennard has struggled historically, averaging just 7 points and 2.2 rebounds at home. With a hit rate of 14 out of the last 15 games going under this total, it's hard to see him breaking through this threshold tonight. Betting the under on Kennard seems like a smart move in this

Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) Under 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110)

As the Dallas Mavericks prepare to face off against the Los Angeles Clippers, all eyes will be on Cooper Flagg. However, betting the under on his combined points, rebounds, and assists at 39.5 feels like the right move. Flagg has been solid lately, averaging around 30.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 3.6 assists over his last five games. But when he's on the road, those numbers dip significantly, with averages of just 23.4 points and 6.8 rebounds. Against the Clippers, he typically scores about 23 points, and his away assists against them have fallen to around 2. Given that he's hit the under in 10 of his last 12 away games, it seems the Clippers' defense could contain him just enough. With an expected stat value of 30.45, taking the under feels like a smart play for this matchup.