Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Picks : Full Match Breakdown & Bets

Josh Battle's strong recent form, averaging 19 disposals over his last five away games and hitting 100% of his hit rates, makes him a promising pick to exceed 14.5 disposals against the Adelaide Crows. His consistency in contested possessions, kicks, and intercepts further supports this bet. With a model predicting him to reach 17.8 disposals, indicating a 6.3% edge, and facing an opponent where he typically achieves 18.8 disposals, the likelihood of him maintaining or surpassing his recent performance is high. Additionally, his current hit streak of 7 in away games and 5 overall boosts confidence in his ability to meet this mark, emphasizing the value in betting on Battle to continue his impressive disposals trend.

Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) Over 19.5 Disposals (-222)

Jarman Impey is a solid bet for Over 19.5 disposals against Adelaide. His model-predicted 22.9 disposals, backed by a 6.2% edge, indicates a high chance of exceeding the line. Impey's recent form is impressive, averaging 22.6 disposals in his last five away games, with a consistent hit streak. Additionally, his history against Adelaide and overall performance averages support this bet. With strong stats in kicks (15.6) and metres gained (579.2) alongside a reliable disposal efficiency (73.6%), Impey is poised to maintain his disposal rate. His ability to find the ball, especially contested possessions (4.6), makes him a reliable choice for surpassing the 19.5 mark.

Darcy Fogarty (Adelaide Crows) Over 9.5 Disposals (-185)

Darcy Fogarty, on a hot streak with 6 consecutive hits, faces Hawthorn where he averages 9.6 disposals. His recent 11.6 disposals at home exceed the 9.5 line. With solid stats like 70.8% disposal efficiency and 7.6 kicks per game, Fogarty consistently contributes. The model projects him at 12.3 disposals, indicating a 6.1% edge and a 64.9% implied probability to surpass the 9.5 line. His 4-game home hit streak and 4.2 contested possessions per game further support this bet. Considering his current form, matchup history, and home advantage, Fogarty looks poised to continue his strong disposals performance.

Mabior Chol (Hawthorn) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-526)

Mabior Chol is a promising choice to snag a goal in the Adelaide Crows vs. Hawthorn Hawks matchup. With a solid recent average of 1.6 goals in his last 5 away games, Chol's goal-scoring prowess is evident. His high goal accuracy of 63.3% and frequent involvement in scoring opportunities, averaging 3.6 score involvements per game, make him a consistent threat to hit the scoreboard. Additionally, facing the Adelaide Crows, against whom he has averaged 1.5 goals in recent matchups, further strengthens the case for Chol to continue his scoring form. Considering his recent performance, goal-scoring history against the opponent, and statistical edge, betting on Chol to score anytime appears to be a well-founded choice.

Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks : Adelaide Crows Win (-118)

The bet on Adelaide Crows is supported by their recent strong home performance, with an average margin of 29.6 points and an impressive 88.8 points scored in their last five home games. Additionally, their solid average of 40.2 total clearances and 50.6 inside 50s per game indicate a strong midfield and attacking presence. In contrast, Hawthorn Hawks have struggled on the road, averaging only 1.2 points margin in their last five away games. With Hawthorn conceding an average of 82.8 points and Adelaide's scoring prowess at home, the Crows are poised to dominate this matchup at Adelaide Oval.