Today's Top AFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Thursday 09/11 (Jai Newcombe Highlights): Best Value Bets

Dylan Moore's recent form, averaging 17 disposals in his last five away games and 21 overall, indicates a consistent performance. Facing the Adelaide Crows, whom he averages 18 disposals against and with a model predicting 21.5 disposals, Moore's 18.5 line seems achievable. His strong disposal efficiency of 62.6% and ability to cover ground with an average of 250.2 meters gained further support this bet. With a current hit streak and a solid hit rate, Moore is poised to continue his impact, making the Over 18.5 disposals a favorable option in this matchup at Adelaide Oval.

Ben King (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 1.5 Goals (-222)

Ben King is poised to shine against the Brisbane Lions given his recent form. With an average of 2.8 goals in his last five away games and a solid goal accuracy of 69.1%, King has been a consistent goal-scoring threat. Additionally, his involvement in the Suns' forward play is evident with 4.8 score involvements per game and an average of 4.2 shots at goal. Facing the Lions, against whom he averages 2.3 goals in their recent matchups, King's track record suggests he is likely to exceed the 1.5 goal line. His recent performance, combined with his strong numbers in goals and shots at goal, make him a compelling pick to snag more than 1.5 goals in this upcoming clash.

Wayne Milera (Adelaide Crows) Over 15.5 Disposals (-122)

Wayne Milera, with a model-predicted 18.4 disposals, surpasses the 15.5 line. His recent form at home, averaging 18.2 disposals, showcases his consistency. Facing Hawthorn, against whom he averages 19 disposals at home, further boosts his potential. Milera's solid disposalefficiency of 81.1% and ability to gain 403 meters on average add to his reliability. Although on a hit streak of 0, his overall hit rate of 6/7 indicates a high chance of meeting or exceeding the line. With an enticing 16.9% model edge and a favorable matchup at Adelaide Oval, backing Milera to accumulate over 15.5 disposals offers a strong betting opportunity.

Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) Under 27.5 Disposals (-114)

Will Ashcroft is likely to go under 27.5 disposals based on his recent form. Although he has been solid with a 26-disposal average in his last 5 home games, he faces the Gold Coast Suns, against whom he averages 27.5 disposals. Additionally, his overall turnover rate of 5.8 per game could indicate potential ball-handling issues. With a model prediction of 25 disposals and a strong 15.9% edge, the data suggests Ashcroft may struggle to meet the line. His recent hit rate of 3/5 at home also implies inconsistency. Betting on Ashcroft to go under 27.5 disposals could be a prudent choice for this matchup.

Logan Morris (Brisbane Lions) Over 1.5 Goals (-185)

Logan Morris is a strong bet to score over 1.5 goals against Gold Coast Suns at the Gabba. With a model prediction of 2.2 goals and an edge of 14.9%, Morris's recent performance supports this bet. In his last 5 home games, he has averaged 2.2 goals, showcasing a consistent scoring ability. Additionally, his average goal accuracy of 64.3% and frequent inside 50s and shots at goal indicate his active involvement in scoring opportunities. Facing a Gold Coast defense he has historically performed well against, averaging 1 goal in their last 5 encounters, Morris is poised to snag goals and exceed the 1.5 goal mark in this matchup.