Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn) Under 23.5 Disposals (-119)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jai Newcombe, playing away, faces the Adelaide Crows with a model-predicted 20.3 disposals, below the bookmaker's line of 23.5. His L5 stats show an average of 24 disposals but against this opponent, he averages 20.5. Newcombe's recent performance indicates he's more likely to fall short of the line, with a solid 68.6% disposal efficiency but a slightly lower contested possession average of 13. Additionally, his turnover rate of 3.8 per game could impact his disposal count. Considering these factors and the model's 19.8% edge, betting under 23.5 disposals for Jai Newcombe seems a reasonable choice for this AFL matchup.
Dylan Moore (Hawthorn) Over 18.5 Disposals (-114)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Dylan Moore's recent form, averaging 17 disposals in his last five away games and 21 overall, indicates a consistent performance. Facing the Adelaide Crows, whom he averages 18 disposals against and with a model predicting 21.5 disposals, Moore's 18.5 line seems achievable. His strong disposal efficiency of 62.6% and ability to cover ground with an average of 250.2 meters gained further support this bet. With a current hit streak and a solid hit rate, Moore is poised to continue his impact, making the Over 18.5 disposals a favorable option in this matchup at Adelaide Oval.
Ben King (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 1.5 Goals (-222)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Ben King is poised to shine against the Brisbane Lions given his recent form. With an average of 2.8 goals in his last five away games and a solid goal accuracy of 69.1%, King has been a consistent goal-scoring threat. Additionally, his involvement in the Suns' forward play is evident with 4.8 score involvements per game and an average of 4.2 shots at goal. Facing the Lions, against whom he averages 2.3 goals in their recent matchups, King's track record suggests he is likely to exceed the 1.5 goal line. His recent performance, combined with his strong numbers in goals and shots at goal, make him a compelling pick to snag more than 1.5 goals in this upcoming clash.
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