Tyler Allgeier (ATL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+185)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data reveals a challenging picture for Tyler Allgeier scoring a touchdown anytime in the upcoming Atlanta Falcons versus Carolina Panthers game. Most recent performance metrics display a poor strike rate with Allgeier not scoring in his last 5 overall games and last 5 home games. His overall hit rate isn't promising either, at 11/59, indicating a less than 20% success rate. However, his performance against the Panthers paints a slightly brighter picture. His hit rate against the Panthers overall is 50% (3/6) and it increases to 67% (2/3) for games at home against this specific opponent. Despite this, it's important to note that he currently has a hit streak of zero in all categories, suggesting recent form is poor. The model edge of 0.15 is also minimal. Therefore, the data suggests it would be a higher risk bet to wager on Allgeier scoring a touchdown anytime in the upcoming game.
Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers : NA Moneyline (-185)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on the Atlanta Falcons in the head-to-head (h2h) market is based on several key statistical data points. While the Falcons have had a struggling performance in their last five games with a record of 1-4, their home advantage record shows a slightly better performance of 2-3. They have an average home score of 25.2 versus 28.4, a point differential of only -3.2, which is better than their overall point differential of -6.2. The Falcons also outperform the opposing team in terms of total yards gained at home, with 397.2 versus 322 yards. Despite their recent struggles, they have shown an ability to maintain possession of the ball, with fewer turnovers at home (0.6) compared to the opposing team's away turnovers (1.2). Additionally, the model's edge is 0.0986493506493507, indicating a slight statistical advantage for the Falcons. Therefore
Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers : Over 42.5 Total Points (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The reasoning for betting on an Over 42.5 total points outcome is based on both teams' recent scoring and defensive performances. The home team has scored an average of 18.4 points and conceded 24.6 points in their last five matchups, while the away team has scored an average of 15 points and allowed 20.6. This totals to an average combined score of 78.6 points, significantly higher than the proposed total of 42.5 points. Moreover, the home team's Expected Points Added (EPA) against is high (10.94), indicating a weak defense, which could allow the away team to score more points. Additionally, both teams have a positive explosive rate for, showing potential for high-scoring plays. Finally, the model_edge of 0.0698652849740932 suggests that the model sees value in this bet. Despite negative EPA and point differentials for both teams, their combined scoring and defensive weaknesses push the rationale
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