Mason Redman (Essendon) Over 14.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Mason Redman is a strong pick to go over 14.5 disposals against Brisbane. With a model prediction of 22.8 and recent averages of 20.6 disposals in away games and 22.4 overall, Redman consistently meets or exceeds this mark. He excels in kicks (L5 average of 13.6), contested possessions (4.8), and metres gained (353.8). Additionally, his exceptional disposal efficiency (85.0% away) and solid intercepts (4.6) provide a strong foundation for surpassing the line. With a current hit streak of 9 away games and 18 overall, Redman's form and consistency make him a reliable choice for this bet.
Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Charlie Cameron is a solid bet to score anytime in the upcoming game based on his consistent recent performances. With a model predicting him to score 1.5 goals, well above the line of 0.5, and an edge of 2.1%, Cameron's average of 1.4 goals in his last five games further supports this bet. His high score involvements (4.4) and shots at goal (3.4) indicate he is regularly involved in scoring opportunities. Additionally, his goal accuracy of 35.0% and history of scoring against Essendon make him a reliable choice, especially playing at home where he has been performing well.
Darcy Wilmot (Brisbane Lions) Over 14.5 Disposals (-667)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Darcy Wilmot is poised to excel in the Disposals Over market with a 14.5 line. His recent performance, especially in home games, showcases an average of 18 disposals, exceeding the line. Wilmot's consistency is highlighted by his high disposalefficiency of 86.3% and a strong average of 12.2 kicks per game. Facing Essendon, where his average disposals rise to 21, enhances his potential to surpass the line comfortably. With an impressive current hit streak of 29 in home games and a solid overall hit rate, Wilmot's form indicates a high likelihood of exceeding 14.5 disposals, making this a favorable bet with a model edge of 3.0%.
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