Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns Prediction & Picks : Stat-Based Insights

Callum Ah Chee's recent performance, especially in home games, shows an upward trend with an average of 0.4 goals, exceeding the model prediction of 1.1. His above-average marks inside 50 and score involvements indicate strong offensive presence. Facing Gold Coast Suns, where he averages 1.3 goals in recent matchups, further supports his scoring potential. With an implied probability of 68.5% and an 8.6% model edge, Ah Chee's chances of snagging a goal, given his recent form and historical success against the opponent, make him a favorable pick to score anytime in the upcoming game at the Gabba.

Alex Davies (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 14.5 Disposals (-196)

Alex Davies is poised to shine in this matchup against Brisbane. With an impressive average of 17.2 disposals in his last five away games and a consistent hit streak, he's shown reliability in meeting and exceeding the 14.5 disposal line. His recent form against this opponent, averaging 16.3 disposals in the last five matchups, further supports this bet. Davies' strong contested possessions, disposals efficiency, and metres gained indicate his ability to perform well away. Backed by a solid model prediction of 17.8 disposals and an 8.0% edge, Davies is set to surpass the 14.5 disposal mark, making the Over a favorable choice for this game.

Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 14.5 Disposals (-192)

Daniel Rioli is poised to surpass 14.5 disposals against Brisbane. With a strong model prediction of 17.7 and a 7.9% edge, Rioli's recent stats support this bet. In his last five away games, he averages 15.6 disposals, including 19.5 against Brisbane. His consistency is highlighted by an overall average of 16.4 disposals. Despite a recent hit rate of 0, Rioli's history of hitting the mark (12/14) and his capability to excel against this opponent make this bet appealing. Expect Rioli to maintain his form and contribute significantly in the upcoming game.

Ben Ainsworth (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 9.5 Disposals (-303)

Ben Ainsworth is poised to exceed 9.5 disposals against Brisbane Lions based on his recent form and matchup history. Ainsworth's season average of 11.6 disposals, coupled with his consistent performance against Brisbane with an average of 12.5 disposals, highlights his reliability. His L5 away games also show a solid average of 11.2 disposals, indicating his consistency on the road. With a model prediction of 13.8 disposals and a 5.4% edge, Ainsworth's potential to not only meet but surpass the 9.5 disposals threshold is well-supported by statistical trends. His high disposalefficiency at 57.5% and ability to gain metres at 203.2 on average further strengthen the rationale for this bet.

Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns : Brisbane Lions Win (-169)

The bet on Brisbane Lions to win against Gold Coast Suns is supported by their superior recent form, averaging 12.2 points margin in their last five games overall. Compared to Gold Coast's average margin of 13.8, Brisbane has shown more consistency in scoring and defending. Brisbane's stronger stats in clearances (40.4) and contested possessions (126.2) also give them an edge over Gold Coast in midfield dominance. With Brisbane's higher average points for (87.2) and Gold Coast's slightly lower points against (76.4), Brisbane's offensive prowess is likely to outshine Gold Coast's defensive capabilities. These factors, along with Brisbane's home advantage at Gabba, make them a favorable pick for the win in this matchup.