Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers : NA +5.5 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a 5.5 spread seems a promising choice based on the given data. The home team, which is presumably the Buccaneers, has a strong home record of 4-1 in the last five games. They've outperformed the away team in terms of overall score, with a 5.4 point difference at home compared to the away team's 2.4. The Bucs also have a higher home EPA (Expected Points Added) for both passing and rushing, indicating better offensive performance. When it comes to turnovers, while the away team has a better record, the Bucs' home turnover difference is positive, suggesting they've been more successful at home. The model edge of 0.06 also leans towards the Bucs. Overall, the Bucs' superior home performance and better offensive statistics provide a strong rationale for this bet.
Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers : NA +5.5 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5.5 in the 'spreads' market is supported by several statistical factors. Firstly, the model edge of 6.37% suggests that the model sees value in this bet. Moreover, the Buccaneers have been performing well in their home games with a record of 4-1 and a superior home EPA differential of 4.73 compared to the away team's differential of 4.63. The Buccaneers also have an edge in their passing game with a higher home pass EPA for of 9.16 compared to the away team's 0.016 pass EPA for. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has a positive home turnover differential, suggesting a better ball control. The Buccaneers have also outperformed in terms of total yards, averaging 396 at home compared to the away team's 302.2. Lastly, the Buccaneers have won the last match against this opponent, indicating a possible psychological advantage.
James Cook (BUF) Under 13.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on James Cook for Under 13.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market for the Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers game is informed by his recent performance and trends. His overall hit rate over the last 3, 5, and 10 games is 0, indicating a poor performance in recent games. His hit rate at home is also low, having only hit twice in the last 10 games. Despite having a 100% hit rate against Tampa Bay, this statistic is based on a single game, which may not be indicative of a consistent performance. Furthermore, his current hit streak for both overall and home games is zero, suggesting a downward trend in his performance. While his performance against Tampa Bay suggests potential, his overall and recent performances indicate a higher likelihood of falling Under 13.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market.
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