Essendon Bombers vs Gold Coast Suns Prediction & Picks (Jade Gresham Key Factor): Odds Analysis & Top Props

Bailey Humphrey presents a strong case to snag a goal in the Essendon vs. Gold Coast matchup. With a solid average of 0.6 goals per game in his last 5 away games and facing an opponent he typically scores against, Humphrey's recent form is promising. His high shot accuracy of 14.7% and involvement in scoring plays (6 per game) indicate he's frequently in goal-scoring positions. Considering his consistent goal-scoring streak and the model predicting him to score 1.2 goals in this game, the data suggests Humphrey is well-positioned to split the middle and hit the scoreboard.

Noah Anderson (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 24.5 Disposals (-500)

Noah Anderson is poised to shine against Essendon based on his impressive form. With a model prediction of 30.6 disposals, well above the line of 24.5, Anderson's recent averages support this bet. In his last 5 away games, he has consistently exceeded this mark with an average of 31.2 disposals. Additionally, his strong contested possession average of 12.2 in away games and high disposal efficiency of 69.5% indicate his ability to find the ball and use it effectively. Anderson's trend of hitting the over in 12 out of his last 13 away games further boosts confidence in this bet, making him a prime candidate to surpass 24.5 disposals in this matchup.

Will Setterfield (Essendon) Over 19.5 Disposals (-227)

Will Setterfield is poised to shine in the upcoming home game against Gold Coast Suns based on his recent form. With a strong average of 23.6 disposals over the last five home games, surpassing the set line of 19.5 seems within reach. Additionally, his historical performance against Gold Coast, averaging 28 disposals in their last five encounters, further supports this bet. Setterfield's consistency in contested possessions, handballs, and kicks, coupled with a high disposal efficiency of 81.2%, enhances his ability to meet the line. The model's prediction of 22.8 disposals, with a small standard deviation of 5, indicates a high likelihood of exceeding the line, making this a favorable wager with a 4.8% edge.

Matt Guelfi (Essendon) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-213)

Matt Guelfi is a solid bet to snag a goal based on his recent form. With an average of 1.4 goals in his last 5 home games, Guelfi has been a consistent threat inside 50. His 46.7% goal accuracy and 1.6 shots per game further support his scoring potential. Facing the Gold Coast Suns, against whom he has averaged 1 goal in their recent matchups, Guelfi's goal-scoring trend looks promising. Given his strong score involvements (6 per game) and the model's prediction of him scoring at least once, the bet on Guelfi to score anytime presents a favorable opportunity to capitalize on his recent goal-scoring prowess.

Essendon Bombers vs Gold Coast Suns : Under 171.5 Total Points (-110)

The bet on Under 171.5 points in the Essendon Bombers vs. Gold Coast Suns game is supported by recent team performance. Essendon's home games show lower scoring averages with 66.8 points for and 94.4 points against in their last five matches. Gold Coast, as the away team, has also demonstrated a trend towards lower scores, averaging 64.2 points for and 75.6 points against overall. With both teams showing a tendency for lower scoring games in recent matchups and the model predicting a total of 168.8 points, the Under 171.5 bet seems favorable. Additionally, Essendon's lower shots on goal and inside 50s stats further support this bet, indicating a potentially lower-scoring game at Marvel Stadium.