Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers Prediction & Picks (Kyren Williams Impact) : Odds & Edges

The betting rationale for Jordan Whittington to be under 13.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is largely based on his recent performance and hit rates. He has consistently fallen under this marker, which is further evidenced by his recent hit rates. Over his last 5 games, he has hit the under in all of them. Furthermore, his overall hit rate is just 1/11, indicating that he only surpasses the 13.5 yards in roughly 9% of his games. Additionally, his performance at home and against the 49ers specifically, both historically and recently, has not been strong. His hit rates in those contexts are 1/6 and 0/1 respectively. The model edge of 0.033 also supports this under bet, although it is a slight edge. Overall, the data suggests that betting under 13.5 for Whittington's reception yards is statistically justified.

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers : NA -7 Point Spread (-105)

The Los Angeles Rams have shown strong performance in their last five games, with a positive overall point difference (2.6) compared to the negative point difference (-3.6) of the opposing team. This indicates that the Rams have been outscoring their opponents by an average of 2.6 points per game. Additionally, their home record is stronger (4-1) than the away team's record on the road (2-3). When we look at the Expected Points Added (EPA) data, the Rams have superior figures both overall and at home, with a home EPA difference of 5.29 compared to the away team's EPA difference of -10.26, which suggests a better offensive and defensive efficiency. Furthermore, the Rams have managed turnovers better, with a home turnover difference of 1.2 against the away team's -1.4. The turnover differential often correlates with the success of a team, and in this case, it favors the

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers : NA -7 Point Spread (-105)

The Los Angeles Rams are a strong bet in the spreads market, backed by their consistent performance in recent games. Looking at the last five games, the Rams have an overall positive point differential of 2.6, suggesting they typically outscore their opponents. Their home record is even stronger, with a larger point differential of 5.8. This suggests they perform particularly well when playing at home. Meanwhile, the opposing team has a negative point differential of -3.6 in their last five games and -10.2 in their away games, indicating they often get outscored. They have more turnovers and less yards gained compared to the Rams, suggesting a weaker offense. The Rams also have a better record against this opponent in the last five encounters, with 3 wins compared to the opposing team's 2. All these factors make the Rams a strong bet to cover a -7 spread.

Jordan Whittington (LA) Under 13.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The statistical trends favor taking the under on Jordan Whittington's player reception yards set at 13.5. Whittington's performance has been consistently underwhelming, as reflected in his overall hit rate of 1/11, indicating that he has surpassed 13.5 yards only once in his last 11 games. His performance at home is not significantly better, with a home hit rate of 1/6, suggesting he's only surpassed this mark in one out of his six home games. Against the 49ers, his statistical performance is equally weak, with a hit rate of 0/1 both overall and at home. Moreover, Whittington is currently on a zero-hit streak at home, overall, and against the 49ers, which further undermines his prospects of achieving over 13.5 reception yards. Given these statistics, the betting data supports the under for Whittington's player reception yard in the upcoming game.

Kyren Williams (LA) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+147)

Despite Kyren Williams' overall and recent poor performance, his specific record against the San Francisco 49ers and especially at home reveals a much more promising outlook. Williams boasts a 100% hit rate in his last two home games against San Francisco, with a 66.67% hit rate in the last three games overall against the 49ers. This suggests that Williams tends to perform better against this specific opponent and when playing at home. However, it's important to consider that Williams has been on a poor run recently, with a zero hit streak overall, at home, and against San Francisco. This raises concerns about his current form. Given the model edge of ~0.021, this bet is slightly in favor of the over. However, it's advisable to consider the player's recent form and overall performance before placing a bet.