Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints Prediction & Picks : Stat-Based Insights

Mason Wood is a solid choice to score anytime based on his recent form. With an average of 1.4 goals in his last five away games and facing an opponent he averages 0 goals against, he's poised to capitalize. Despite a lower goal accuracy overall, his recent 56.7% accuracy suggests an upward trend. With an average of 2 shots on goal and 5 score involvements per game, Wood is actively involved in St Kilda's attacking plays. The model's prediction of 1.3 goals, coupled with a favorable 8.3% edge, supports the likelihood of Wood finding the back of the net in this matchup.

Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints : St Kilda Saints 12.5 (-111)

St Kilda Saints are backed at +12.5 due to their recent performance, where they've been competitive despite averaging a negative margin. Melbourne Demons have a solid record but have not been dominant in their recent home games, with a modest average margin of 1.8. St Kilda's ability to limit points against them, coupled with Melbourne's slightly lower average points for and shots on goal compared to their overall stats, suggests a closer game than the spread indicates. The Saints' recent form, especially defensively, supports the likelihood of them keeping this game tight, making the +12.5 spread an appealing bet.

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (St Kilda) Under 28.5 Disposals (-128)

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is likely to go under 28.5 disposals based on his recent performance trends and model prediction of 26.8. Despite averaging 25.8 disposals in his last five away games, his historical data against Melbourne and overall averages support this bet. With a solid contested possessions average of 6.8 and a turnover rate of 5.4, he may struggle to reach the 28.5 mark against a strong Melbourne side. Additionally, his current hit streak of 8 away games indicates consistency but not at a high disposal rate. Considering these factors, the under bet seems favorable for this matchup.

Clayton Oliver (Melbourne) Under 24.5 Disposals (-118)

Clayton Oliver's recent performance, especially against St Kilda, suggests he may fall short of 24.5 disposals. Despite a solid average of 23 disposals in his last five home games, his historical matchup against St Kilda shows an average of 29.3 disposals. With his current form slightly below his average at 22.8 disposals, the model's prediction of 23.2 indicates a potential underperformance. Additionally, his turnovers have been averaging 3.2 in recent games, hinting at potential ball-handling issues. Considering these factors and the model's 6.3% edge, betting on Oliver to have under 24.5 disposals seems like a strategic choice.

Christian Petracca (Melbourne) Over 24.5 Disposals (-125)

Christian Petracca is in stellar form, averaging 26.8 disposals in his last five home games and maintaining a high disposalefficiency of 69.3%. Facing St Kilda, against whom he has a 100% hit rate in disposals over the last five games, Petracca's model-predicted 25.9 disposals indicate a strong probability of exceeding the line of 24.5. With an overall hit rate of 7/7 and a current hit streak of 2 at home, Petracca's consistency and recent performances make him a reliable bet to continue his impressive disposals output. This bet is further supported by the model's edge of 5.2%, suggesting value in backing Petracca to surpass 24.5 disposals in this upcoming home game for the Melbourne Demons.