Malik Washington (MIA) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+205)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting data on Malik Washington suggests that betting on him to score a touchdown at any time during the Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders game would be a high-risk move. His recent performance and trends do not inspire confidence - in his last 20 games, he has only scored once overall and has never scored at home. The hit rates across his last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games, both overall and at home, are extremely low, with zero touchdowns scored in the majority of these games. His current hit streak is also zero, indicating a lack of momentum. While the model edge of 0.174 suggests some potential for an upset, the overwhelming trend of data suggests a low probability of this outcome. Therefore, this bet seems to be more of a long shot rather than a calculated risk.
Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders : NA Moneyline (+124)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on the Washington Commanders in the head-to-head market is supported by several key statistics. In the last five games, the Commanders have had better overall performance than their opposition. For instance, their average points scored (20.6) are higher than the opposition's (17.8), and they concede fewer points (22.2 vs. 35.8). The Commanders' expected points added (EPA) both offensively and defensively are better than the opposition's, indicating more efficient plays. The Commanders also have a better turnover record, with fewer turnovers for and more turnovers against than the opposition, suggesting better ball control and defense. Furthermore, the Commanders have a better record in previous encounters with the opposition (1-0) and their recent home performance (2-3) is superior to the opposition's recent away performance (0-5). All these factors, coupled with a model edge of 0.155, justify the bet on the Washington Command
Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders : NA +2.5 Point Spread (-105)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on the Washington Commanders with a 2.5 spread is supported by several factors. Firstly, their model edge of 0.123 suggests they have a statistical advantage. Although Washington Commanders' recent scores have been relatively low (20.6 points on average in the last five games), they have been significantly more successful than their opponents, who averaged only 17.8 in the same period. Moreover, the Commanders' opponents have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 35.8 points in their last five games, which is substantially more than the Commanders' 22.2. The away team's overall point differential is -18, much worse than the Commanders' -1.6. Finally, the Commanders' home record against this opponent is positive (1-0), whereas the away team's overall recent record is poor (0-5). All these statistics suggest that it's reasonable to bet on the Washington Commanders in this instance
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