Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders : NA Moneyline (+124)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on the Washington Commanders in the head-to-head market is statistically justified. While the Commanders' recent form is not overwhelmingly strong with a 2-3 overall record, it's worth noting their performance is relatively better than their opposing team, who have a 0-5 record in their last 5 games. The Commanders' point differential in recent games (-1.6) is also much better than their counterparts' significantly lower differential (-18). Furthermore, the Commanders have a positive record against the opposition in their last 5 encounters (1-0), indicating some measure of dominance. The Commanders' turnover differential (-1.4) might be a cause for concern, but the opposition's figures are not much better (-1.2). Considering the model edge of 0.18 in favor of the Commanders, these statistics suggest a higher probability of a Washington Commanders win in the upcoming game.
Malik Washington (MIA) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+200)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data for Malik Washington does not support a bet on him scoring a touchdown in the upcoming game between the Miami Dolphins and the Washington Commanders. Over the last 20 games, Washington has only scored a touchdown once, indicating a 5% hit rate. His performance in home games is even less promising, with 0 touchdowns in the last 10 home games. Furthermore, Washington's current scoring streak is at zero, and he hasn't scored in his last 5 games overall, let alone the last 3. Even though the model edge is 0.168898133439196, the player's historical performance and current form suggest that betting on Washington to score a touchdown at any time during the game would be a risky proposition. In conclusion, the statistical evidence does not favor Malik Washington scoring a touchdown in this game.
Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders : NA +2.5 Point Spread (-105)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The rationale for the bet on Washington Commanders 2.5 in the 'spreads' market is based on a combination of recent performance data and overall records. Although the Commanders' home record isn't impressive (2-3), they have a slight edge in point differential (-1.6) compared to their opponents' away point differential (-18), indicating they've performed better in recent games. This is further supported by their overall L5 EPA (Expected Points Added), which is significantly less negative than their opponents'. Furthermore, the Commanders' L5 total yards for (320) outperforms their opponents' (301.6), and they also have a better turnover differential. The model's edge of 0.145 suggests a probability advantage for the Commanders, and their previous record against this opponent is 1-0, suggesting a historical advantage. Given these statistics, betting on the Washington Commanders to cover the 2.5 point spread is a statistically informed
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