New England Patriots vs New York Jets : NA Moneyline (+575)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on the New York Jets in the head-to-head (h2h) market is substantiated by their superior performance statistics over the last five games. The Jets have maintained a perfect 5-0 overall record, compared to the opposition's 2-3 performance. They have consistently outscored their opponents, averaging 28 points per game against their opponents' average of 21. Their point differential is also positive, standing at 9.8 points compared to their opponents' -3.2. Moreover, the Jets' EPA (Expected Points Added) figures are superior. They have an overall EPA difference of 11.11, compared to their opponents' -4.18, indicating a higher efficiency in converting plays into points. Their passing EPA is also stronger, which emphasizes a more effective passing game. Also, the Jets have been more explosive, with an overall explosive rate of 0.24 compared to their opponents' 0.18. This implies the
New England Patriots vs New York Jets : Over 43.5 Total Points (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Over 43.5 in the 'totals' market is supported by several key statistical factors. Firstly, the average points scored by the home team and away team over their last five games are 28 and 21 respectively. This gives a combined average of 49 points, which is comfortably over the set total of 43.5. This suggests both teams have the offensive capacity to achieve a high scoring game. Secondly, the home team's efficiency in terms of Expected Points Added (EPA) is positive on both sides of the ball, indicating they gain and prevent points effectively. Lastly, the away team's point differential in their last five games is -3.2, implying they give up more points than they score. This increases the likelihood of a high scoring game. Therefore, the Over 43.5 bet has a solid statistical basis.
Drake Maye (NE) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+170)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The recent performance and hit rate trends of Drake Maye suggest a less favorable outlook for this player prop bet. The overall hit rate of Maye is quite low, with only 2 successful hits out of 23 attempts overall. This is consistent across his last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games as well. However, there are a couple of promising trends that could indicate a potential upside. Maye has a 100% hit rate when playing against the New York Jets at home, suggesting that he performs well in this specific situation. His current hit streak against the Jets is also at 1, suggesting recent success in this matchup. However, considering his overall and recent hit rates, betting on Maye to score a touchdown anytime in this game is a risky proposition, even with the model showing a 0.1318 edge. The decision should be made considering the risk tolerance of the bettor.
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