Today's Top AFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Friday 07/18 (Aaron Naughton Highlights): Finding the Edge

Max Holmes is poised to shine in this matchup against St Kilda at home. With a solid L5 average of 32.4 disposals in home games and facing an opponent where he averages 23.5 disposals, the model's prediction of 29.1 with a 19.7% edge suggests he'll comfortably surpass the 24.5 disposals line. Holmes showcases strong form with a 4/5 hit rate in home games and averages 30.4 disposals overall. His ability to maintain possession efficiently (71.3% disposal efficiency) and cover ground (718.4 metres gained) bodes well for him to snag plenty of disposals in this game. Betting on Holmes to go over 24.5 disposals seems like a solid play given his recent performances and matchup dynamics.

Tim Taranto (Richmond) Under 26.5 Disposals (-114)

Tim Taranto is projected to fall short of 26.5 disposals based on his recent away performances, averaging 25 disposals. His disposal efficiency of 71.4%, while solid, may not translate to high volume. Facing West Coast, he averages 27 disposals in away games but only 28 overall. With a turnover average of 3.8, he might struggle against the Eagles' pressure. Despite a 1-game hit streak, his overall hit rate is 5/7. The model's edge of 18.4% suggests value in betting under 26.5 disposals. Taranto's recent stats and matchup history indicate a potential dip in output, making the under a favorable wager.

Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide) Under 26.5 Disposals (-123)

Ollie Wines is poised to go under 26.5 disposals in the upcoming away game against Hawthorn. Despite averaging 21.6 disposals in his last five away games, his L5 stats show a slightly lower average against this specific opponent at 23.2 disposals. With a model prediction of 23.3 disposals and a solid edge of 18.4%, the data indicates a strong likelihood of Wines falling short of the 26.5 line. His recent form, including a 70.0% disposal efficiency and consistent averages in contested possessions and metres gained, aligns with a controlled performance. Wines' current hit streak of 4 and a reliable overall hit rate bolster the confidence in this under bet.

Rhylee West (Western Bulldogs) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-204)

Rhylee West is a strong candidate to snag a goal in the upcoming Brisbane Lions vs. Western Bulldogs clash due to his recent form. With an average of 1.2 goals in his last five away games and facing a team where he averages 2 goals per game, his goal-scoring ability is evident. West's high goal accuracy of 63.0% away, coupled with his consistent shot attempts (2.6 per game), increases his likelihood of splitting the middle. His involvement in scores (6.4 per game) and ability to find space inside 50 (1.4 marks) further support his scoring potential. The model predicting him to score 1.3 goals with a strong edge of 18.4% reinforces the rationale for betting on Rhylee West to score anytime in this matchup.

Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) Over 1.5 Goals (-204)

Jack Gunston has been on fire lately, averaging 3.2 goals in his last five home games. His impressive 43.6% goal accuracy and 6.2 shots at goal per game indicate he's a constant threat in front of the big sticks. Facing Port Adelaide, against whom he has averaged 2.8 goals in their last five encounters, Gunston is poised to capitalize on his 3.2 marks inside 50 and 9 score involvements per game. With a model predicting him to score 2.3 goals (18.2% edge), Gunston's recent form, historical performance, and matchup favor him to snag over 1.5 goals in this game, making this a solid bet.