Today's Top MLB Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Thursday 08/28 (Jose Quintana Highlights): Data-Driven Baseball Insights

The bet on Rafael Devers for Under 2.5 in the batter hits market is a statistically sound choice. Over the last five games, Devers has averaged only 0.4 hits overall and 0.4 hits in away games. Even when considering his performance specifically against the Giants, his hit average is just 0.8. Furthermore, his plate appearance averages are relatively high, indicating that he has had ample opportunities to hit but has not been converting them into hits consistently. Despite his impressive hit streaks, the low hit averages suggest that Devers is more likely to have fewer than 2.5 hits in the upcoming game. Therefore, the under bet is the more statistically likely outcome based on his recent performance.

Jose Quintana (MIL) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-114)

The bet on Jose Quintana to achieve over 3.5 strikeouts is a solid choice based on his recent performance data. Quintana's average strikeouts over the last five games is 4.4, indicating a trend of surpassing the line set for this game. His average innings pitched in the last five games is 5.9, providing ample opportunities to achieve the required strikeouts. Even at home, Quintana's strikeout average is 3.6, which is close to the line and suggests he can reach the target. Although his performance against the Diamondbacks is slightly weaker, his overall and home averages show a consistent ability to achieve high strikeout numbers. Therefore, based on Quintana's recent performance, it is statistically probable that he will exceed 3.5 strikeouts in the upcoming game.

Matt Chapman (SFG) Under 2.5 Hits (-385)

The under 2.5 bet for Matt Chapman is a promising choice given his recent performance data. Chapman's average hits over his last five games, both overall and at home, are 0.6 and 0.2 respectively. This is significantly below the line of 2.5, indicating that he's been struggling to get hits recently. Even against the Cubs, his average hits per game is only at 1, still considerably below the line. Despite his impressive overall and home hit streaks, these figures represent games in which he's had at least one hit, not the number of hits per game. Considering these statistics, it's highly probable that Chapman will have fewer than 2.5 hits in the upcoming game, making this bet a data-driven choice.

Spencer Torkelson (DET) Under 3.5 Total Bases (-204)

The bet on Spencer Torkelson for Under 3.5 in the Batter Total Bases market is driven by his recent performance data. Over his last five games, Torkelson's overall hits average is just 0.8, with only 0.2 doubles and 0.2 home runs. His performance against the Athletics is even less impressive, with an average of only 0.2 hits. Furthermore, Torkelson's stats are lower when playing away games, with an average of 0.8 hits, no triples or doubles, and a current away hit streak of zero. His low performance in these key areas, particularly his low hit rate against the Athletics and in away games, indicates a lower likelihood of him achieving over 3.5 total bases in the upcoming game. Therefore, betting under 3.5 is a statistically sound choice.

David Hamilton (BOS) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-294)

The bet on David Hamilton for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a solid choice based on his recent performance. Over the last five games, Hamilton has not stolen any bases, whether playing at home or away. His average stolen bases against the Orioles is also low at 0.4. On top of this, his current hit streak doesn't necessarily translate into stolen bases, as he hasn't been successful in turning hits into steals recently. Furthermore, the Orioles have not allowed any stolen bases in the last five games, indicating their strong defense against base stealing. Therefore, given Hamilton's current performance and the Orioles' defensive stats, it's statistically probable that Hamilton will not steal any bases in the upcoming game.