Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 11.5 Assists (-233)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the Portland Trail Blazers, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic's assist numbers. While his overall average sits at a solid 11.6 over his last five games, the trend indicates he's been more reserved at home, averaging just 10.8 assists. Notably, against the Trail Blazers, he's averaged only 8.4 assists in their recent matchups, dropping to 9.4 when playing at home. With a hit rate of 8 out of 11 for hitting the under in this setting, it seems Jokic may focus more on scoring and rebounding rather than playmaking. The odds are leaning heavily towards the under, reflecting an implied probability of nearly 70%. In a game where he's likely to find himself more as a scorer, betting on Jokic to finish below 11.5 assists feels like a savvy play.

Deni Avdija (Portland Trail Blazers) Under 45.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-278)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As we gear up for the matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Portland Trail Blazers, Deni Avdija's prop bet for under 45.5 points, rebounds, and assists stands out as a smart play. Avdija has shown flashes of potential, but on the road, his numbers take a noticeable dip. In his last five away games, he's averaging just 20 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 4.8 assists-far from the lofty total we're targeting. Against the Nuggets, his historical performance continues this trend, where he averages only 9.6 points and 4.8 rebounds away from home. With a hit rate of 9 out of his last 10 away games falling under this threshold, the odds suggest that he'll struggle yet again in Denver's tough atmosphere. The combination of these stats paints a compelling picture for an under bet on Avdija, making it a solid choice for savvy bettors.

Mikal Bridges (New York Knicks) Over 12.5 Points (-114)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Mikal Bridges is primed for a standout performance against the Washington Wizards this Sunday, making the Over on his points line of 12.5 an enticing play. While his recent average of 8.4 points might raise eyebrows, don't let that fool you; he's been a different beast at Madison Square Garden. At home, Bridges has been averaging 13.6 points-just a hair above our target-but the matchups tell a different story. Against the Wizards, he's been lighting it up, averaging 19.8 points per game in their last five encounters at home. With the Knicks needing a spark and Bridges stepping into the spotlight, expect him to rise to the occasion, especially given the Wizards' struggles defending the perimeter. With an expected stat value of 16.38, this bet feels like a slam dunk. Get ready for Bridges to surpass that 12.5 mark and propel the Knicks to victory!

Peyton Watson (Denver Nuggets) Over 5.5 Points (-333)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

When it comes to Peyton Watson, the numbers tell a compelling story that makes the over on his points total an enticing bet. Playing at home against the Portland Trail Blazers, Watson has been on fire lately, averaging 20 points in his last five games on his own court. His performances against Portland have been particularly eye-catching, where he's dropped an impressive 13 points per game in their recent encounters. This isn't just a fluke-it's part of a larger trend that has seen him score in double digits in every single game over the last 20 outings. With an implied probability of nearly 77% and a model edge showcasing a strong expected output of almost 18 points, it seems all signs point to Watson comfortably surpassing that modest 5.5 mark. The home crowd will be behind him, and he's proven time and again that he can deliver when it counts.

Josh Minott (Brooklyn Nets) Under 17.5 Points + Rebounds (-161)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Brooklyn Nets take on the Sacramento Kings, all eyes might be on the stars, but it's Josh Minott who stands out for a different reason. Playing away, Minott's been under the radar in terms of scoring and rebounding, particularly with a current prop line set at 17.5 for points and rebounds. Consider this: in his last 20 games, he's hit the under an impressive 18 times, and away from home, he's been even more restrained, hitting the under in 15 of his last 16 road games. The Kings present a solid defensive front, and with an expected stat value of just 10.85, Minott's opportunities may dwindle. With a 61.7% implied probability of hitting that under, it's hard not to see value in betting against him surpassing that threshold. Expect a quiet night for Minott as he navigates a tough matchup on the road.

Nique Clifford (Sacramento Kings) Under 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As Nique Clifford gears up for the Kings' home matchup against the Nets, the spotlight is on his performance, particularly when it comes to points, rebounds, and assists. With an expected stat value of 18.18, it's clear that reaching the 23.5 mark is a tall order for him. His recent form has been impressive overall, hitting the under in 15 of his last 20 outings, and even more so at home, where he's fallen short in 17 of 20 games. The Nets might not strike fear into the hearts of opponents, but they do have a knack for tightening up defensively. Given Clifford's current trajectory and the Kings' overall dynamics, it's quite plausible he'll struggle to eclipse that threshold. Betting the under on his combined stats could be a savvy move as it aligns perfectly with recent trends and the narrative of the game.

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