Greg Dortch (ARI) Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
It's advisable to bet on Greg Dortch for Under 15.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market, when the Arizona Cardinals host the Seattle Seahawks. The main reason for this is Dortch's recent performance, showing a lack of consistency. He has not hit this mark in his last three or five games overall, and his overall hit rate is less than half (18/40). His performance at home is also not encouraging, missing this mark in his last three and five out of his last ten home games. Although his performance against the Seahawks (4/4) and specifically at home against the Seahawks (3/3) is perfect, it's important to consider the overall trend, which suggests he's struggling to maintain the 15.5 yard threshold. Therefore, the under bet seems to be a safer choice.
Greg Dortch (ARI) Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The under 15.5 bet for Greg Dortch's reception yards in the Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks game is justified by several statistical trends. Dortch's recent performance shows a downward trend, with his overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, and 10 games being 0/3, 0/5, and 3/10 respectively. At home, his hit rate is only slightly better, with 0/3 in the last 3 games, and 5/10 in the last 10. This trend indicates a low likelihood of him exceeding 15.5 reception yards. However, Dortch has historically performed well against the Seahawks, with a 100% hit rate in the last 3, 5, and 10 games, and at home. But considering his current overall and home hit streaks are at zero, it suggests his form against the Seahawks might not hold up. Therefore, the under 15.5 bet is
Trey Benson (ARI) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+126)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistical data for Trey Benson suggests a low likelihood of him scoring a touchdown in the upcoming game against the Seattle Seahawks. His hit rate, which measures the frequency of him scoring a touchdown, has been consistently low in recent games. Over the last 20 games, he has scored only once, yielding an overall hit rate of 1/15. His performance against the Seahawks has been particularly poor, with a hit rate of 0/2. His hit rate at home is also low at 1/8, indicating that he does not have a strong track record of scoring touchdowns on home turf. His current hit streaks are all at zero, meaning he has not scored in recent games. Despite a model edge of 0.0596475599106968, the data suggests that betting on Trey Benson to score a touchdown in the upcoming game is statistically risky.
Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks : Over 43.5 Total Points (-105)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The Over 43.5 bet in the 'totals' market for this NFL game seems statistically promising based on recent performance data. The home team has been averaging 23.6 points while the away team has been averaging 24.8 points in their last five games, which totals 48.4 points, well above the 43.5 benchmark. Additionally, both teams have shown strong offensive capabilities with a positive EPA (Expected Points Added) for both passing and rushing. Moreover, both teams have maintained a positive point differential, indicating they typically score more than their opponents. However, it's worth noting that the home team's record against the away team in their last five encounters is 0-5, indicating a possible psychological edge for the away team. This could potentially increase their scoring further. With these statistics at hand, an Over 43.5 bet seems statistically reasonable, given the scoring prowess of both teams.
Emari Demercado (ARI) Under 14.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Emari Demercado to rush for under 14.5 yards seems favorable as per his recent performance and trends. His overall hit rate for rushing under 14.5 yards is 56% (14/25), which exceeds the breakeven point of 52.38% for even odds. His hit rate notably increases to 66.67% (2/3) when facing the Seattle Seahawks, signaling his struggle to rush against this specific team. Additionally, his hit rate at home games (38.46%, 5/13) is lower than his overall hit rate, suggesting that he performs worse in home games. His current hit streak for under 14.5 rushing yards is zero, but his home current hit streak is one, indicating a recent trend of lower performance at home. The model edge of 0.03 also suggests a slight advantage for this bet. Therefore, statistical trends point towards betting under 14.5 for Demercado's
Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks : Over 43.5 Total Points (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The rationale for betting Over 43.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is based on the recent scoring records of both teams. The home team has scored an average of 23.6 points in their last five games, while the away team has averaged 24.8 points. This results in an average combined score of 48.4 points, which is significantly higher than the over/under line of 43.5 points. Additionally, the home team's expected points added (EPA) for their last five games is positive, indicating they are making plays that increase their chances of scoring. The same can be said for the away team. Furthermore, both teams have positive point differentials in their last five games, which indicates they are outscoring their opponents. While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, these statistics suggest a reasonable likelihood that the total score will exceed 43.5 points.
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