Trey Benson (ARI) Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Trey Benson for under 21.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market seems statistically sound. Benson's current form does not indicate a high probability of him exceeding this mark. He has failed to hit this target in his last three overall appearances (0/3), and his recent home performances are only slightly better, hitting the mark 2 out of 3 times. His overall hit rate in the last 5 games is 2/5, which is below average. Moreover, Benson's current hit streak for both overall and home games is zero, which further supports the under bet. In contrast, Benson's performance against the Seahawks seems more promising, hitting the mark in all of his last two appearances against them. However, given the overall and recent form of the player, betting under 21.5 appears to be the safer bet. The model edge of 0.178 also suggests that the under bet has a statistical advantage.
Trey Benson (ARI) Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting under 21.5 for Trey Benson's receiving yards is a prudent option based on several statistical factors. Over Benson's last five games, his performance has been inconsistent, with an overall hit rate of just 2/5. Though his home hit rate over the same period is slightly better at 3/5, his recent form shows a lack of consistency, which is represented by an overall current hit streak of zero. Furthermore, Benson's overall hit rate over the last 20 games is 11/15, indicating that he fails to surpass 21.5 yards in around 27% of his games. Despite having a perfect hit rate against the Seahawks, the small sample size of only two games doesn't provide enough statistical evidence to counterbalance his overall performance. Therefore, based on these numbers, betting under 21.5 for Benson's receiving yards is the safer option.
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistics show a clear trend that supports betting on 'Under 20.5' for Pat Freiermuth's player reception yards. Freiermuth's overall and home hit rates for the 'Under' outcome have been consistently low. Over his last 5 games, he has not hit the 'Over' mark once, and in his last 3 games, both home and away, he also failed to cross this threshold. This pattern extends over the last 10 and 20 games where Freiermuth's hit rates were 1/10 and 5/20 respectively. Furthermore, he is currently on a hit streak of zero. It's important to note that these statistics are indicative of a lack of consistency in Freiermuth's performance. Therefore, the data-driven rationale suggests betting on under 20.5 yards for Freiermuth's player reception yards in the upcoming game against the Minnesota Vikings would be a prudent choice.
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistical data suggests that betting on Pat Freiermuth to stay under 20.5 reception yards would be a reasonable choice. Freiermuth's recent performance indicates a weak trend for surpassing this threshold. Over his last 10 games, he has only gone over the 20.5 yards mark once in total and three times at home. This drops to zero in his last five games, at home or overall. His overall hit rate is only 13/48, with a home hit rate of 6/20, both of which suggest a low probability of surpassing 20.5 reception yards. The model also provides an edge of 15.8% for this outcome. Therefore, based on Freiermuth's recent performances and historical data, the under 20.5 player reception yards bet is statistically supported.
Greg Dortch (ARI) Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
It's advisable to bet on Greg Dortch for Under 15.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market, when the Arizona Cardinals host the Seattle Seahawks. The main reason for this is Dortch's recent performance, showing a lack of consistency. He has not hit this mark in his last three or five games overall, and his overall hit rate is less than half (18/40). His performance at home is also not encouraging, missing this mark in his last three and five out of his last ten home games. Although his performance against the Seahawks (4/4) and specifically at home against the Seahawks (3/3) is perfect, it's important to consider the overall trend, which suggests he's struggling to maintain the 15.5 yard threshold. Therefore, the under bet seems to be a safer choice.
Greg Dortch (ARI) Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The under 15.5 bet for Greg Dortch's reception yards in the Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks game is justified by several statistical trends. Dortch's recent performance shows a downward trend, with his overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, and 10 games being 0/3, 0/5, and 3/10 respectively. At home, his hit rate is only slightly better, with 0/3 in the last 3 games, and 5/10 in the last 10. This trend indicates a low likelihood of him exceeding 15.5 reception yards. However, Dortch has historically performed well against the Seahawks, with a 100% hit rate in the last 3, 5, and 10 games, and at home. But considering his current overall and home hit streaks are at zero, it suggests his form against the Seahawks might not hold up. Therefore, the under 15.5 bet is
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