Pat Freiermuth (PIT) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistics show a clear trend that supports betting on 'Under 20.5' for Pat Freiermuth's player reception yards. Freiermuth's overall and home hit rates for the 'Under' outcome have been consistently low. Over his last 5 games, he has not hit the 'Over' mark once, and in his last 3 games, both home and away, he also failed to cross this threshold. This pattern extends over the last 10 and 20 games where Freiermuth's hit rates were 1/10 and 5/20 respectively. Furthermore, he is currently on a hit streak of zero. It's important to note that these statistics are indicative of a lack of consistency in Freiermuth's performance. Therefore, the data-driven rationale suggests betting on under 20.5 yards for Freiermuth's player reception yards in the upcoming game against the Minnesota Vikings would be a prudent choice.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings : NA -2.5 Point Spread (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Minnesota Vikings appear to be a strong bet at -2.5 in the 'spreads' market. The statistical data reveals several factors in their favor. Firstly, the home team has a negative point differential in their last five games (-4.2 points), indicating they've been outscored by their opponents. This is slightly worse than the away team's point differential (-3 points). Additionally, the home team's Expected Points Added (EPA) differential is negative both overall and in passing and rushing, suggesting weaker offensive performance. Their total yards against is also higher than that of the away team, indicating a weaker defense. On the other hand, the Vikings have a better away record in the last five games (3-2) compared to the home team's home record (2-3). Considering the model edge of 0.087, the bet on the Vikings seems well justified.
Jaylen Warren (PIT) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the provided data, betting on Jaylen Warren to score a touchdown at any point in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Minnesota Vikings appears to be a high-risk bet. Warren's recent performance and trends indicate a low probability of scoring. Over his last 20 games overall, he only scored in one (5% success rate). His success rate is even lower when looking at home games, where he scored just once in 20 attempts (5% success rate). His recent form does not inspire confidence either, as he hasn't scored in his last 10 games overall or at home. In fact, his overall hit rate is just over 11%, suggesting that he scores very infrequently. While the model edge of 8.5% indicates some potential value, the likelihood of this bet being successful is statistically low based on Warren's past performance.
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