Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the provided data, betting on Amon-Ra St. Brown to score a touchdown at any time during the Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns game seems to be a risky proposition. His recent performance has been lacklustre, with zero touchdowns scored in the last five games overall, and only one in his last five home games. Furthermore, his current hit streak, both overall and at home, is zero, indicating a recent dry spell in scoring. Although his overall hit rate (25/56) and home hit rate (11/28) suggest he has had some success in scoring touchdowns, the declining trend is a red flag. The model edge of only 0.0576 also indicates a slim margin for profit. In conclusion, the statistical evidence suggests caution in betting on St. Brown to score a touchdown in this game.
Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns : NA -10 Point Spread (-105)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Detroit Lions have shown strong performance in their recent games, with a 3-2 record at home and overall in the last five games. They have averaged 33 points for and 26.4 points against overall, leading to an average point differential of 6.6. At home, the Lions' average point differential increases to 7.2. This suggests a solid offensive capacity, coupled with a reasonable defensive record. In contrast, the opposing team has been struggling, with a 1-4 overall record and a 0-5 record on the road in their last five games. They have averaged only 11.8 points for and 24.6 points against, resulting in a significant point differential of -12.8. This indicates weak offensive performance and poor defense. Given these statistics, betting on the Detroit Lions with a -10 point spread is statistically reasonable. Their superior offensive and defensive performance gives them a strong edge, despite the high spread.
Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns : NA -9.5 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The Detroit Lions demonstrate a strong case for covering a -9.5 spread, backed by their recent performance stats and the contrasting form of their opponents. The Lions have a positive point differential over the last five games, both overall (6.6) and at home (7.2), showcasing their ability to outscore opponents. On the other hand, their opponents struggle with a negative point differential, particularly when playing away (-17.8). Additionally, the Lions' Expected Points Added (EPA) differential is favorable, indicating their offensive efficiency outpaces their defensive liabilities. In contrast, the opponents have a significantly negative EPA differential, suggesting they struggle to create scoring opportunities while allowing too many. The Lions also generate more total yards per game (419.6) than their opponents are able to achieve (275.2). While the Lions have a slight negative turnover differential, the opponents' turnover issues are more concerning. These statistics suggest that the Lions are well-positioned to cover the -9.
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