Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Thursday 04/09 (Dylan Harper Highlights): Finding the Edge

As the San Antonio Spurs gear up to face the Portland Trail Blazers, all eyes will be on Dylan Harper, but it might be wise to lean towards the under on his combined points, rebounds, and assists at 27.5. Harper's recent form paints a clear picture: he's averaging just 14.8 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 4 assists over his last five games, and his home numbers don't offer much comfort either, with a mere 14.4 points and 4.8 rebounds. Against Portland, he's posted an average of just 6.5 points, which significantly drags down that overall total. With a stunning 19 out of 20 hit rate at home in his last two decades of games, it's evident that Harper tends to stay below the radar against this specific matchup. Expect him to struggle to reach that lofty number tonight, making the under a compelling choice.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 10.5 Assists (+104)

As we gear up for the clash between the Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic. While his average assists over the last five games sit at a healthy 11.6, a closer look reveals a couple of intriguing factors that suggest a dip in production tonight. Jokic typically thrives at home, averaging 13 assists, but against the Grizzlies, he's delivered only 10.4 assists per game on his turf.With Memphis boasting a defensive scheme that often limits playmakers, it could be a tougher night for Jokic. The Nuggets will likely rely more on their scoring depth, reducing Jokic's playmaking burden. Given his expected stat value of 8.68 and the possibility of him falling under that 10.5 mark, taking the under on Jokic's assists feels like a savvy bet in this matchup. This game could see him facilitating less and finishing more.

Cade Cunningham (Detroit Pistons) Over 14.5 Points (-143)

Cade Cunningham is truly finding his rhythm as the Detroit Pistons prepare to face off against the Milwaukee Bucks. With an average of 19 points per game at home over his last five outings, he's not just hitting the mark; he's exceeding it. Historically, he's been even more impressive against the Bucks, averaging a striking 25.6 points in their last five matchups, which includes a solid 20.4 at home. The stakes are high, and Cunningham has been on fire lately, boasting a remarkable 13 of 16 success rate in his last games. With the Pistons playing at home and Cunningham's recent trend of scoring consistently above 14.5, this feels like a prime opportunity to back him. Given that he's thriving in front of the home crowd and the statistical edge he holds, betting the over on his points makes both strategic and intuitive sense.

Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) Under 31.5 Points + Assists (-114)

In Thursday's showdown between the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks, targeting Cooper Flagg for under 31.5 combined points and assists feels like a smart move. Now, while Flagg has been impressive overall, averaging 30.4 points and 3.6 assists in his last five games, his away numbers tell a different story. On the road, his production dips to 23 points and 4.4 assists, and against the Mavericks, he's averaged just 27 points in previous encounters. Let's not ignore his recent form; he's hit this under in three straight away games, showcasing how the pressure of playing on the road can stifle his output. With the Mavericks keen to tighten their defense, Flagg may find it challenging to hit that lofty mark. Given these trends, I believe the under is a solid play here, especially with an expected stat value significantly below the line.

Dylan Harper (San Antonio Spurs) Under 17.5 Points (-120)

As the San Antonio Spurs gear up to face the Portland Trail Blazers, all eyes will be on Dylan Harper. However, betting on him to score over 17.5 points might be a stretch. Harper has been solid, averaging 14.8 points over his last five games, and even more telling, he's managed just 6 points against the Blazers at home. With a recent hit rate of 6 out of 7 for staying under this mark, it's clear that he's not consistently finding the net as we might hope. Moreover, he's only hit 18 out of 20 times at home, but those numbers seem skewed by a few standout performances. Facing a tough Portland defense, Harper may struggle to break out of this minor slump, making the under a compelling choice for this matchup. Expect him to fall short of that 17.5 threshold once again.